Forex News 08:38 O ouro oscila em torno dos mínimos de dez meses Tendo registrado cinco semanas consecutivas de perdas, o ouro estendeu sua trajetória de queda recente e caiu para o nível mais baixo em mais de 10 meses na segunda-feira. O metal, no entanto, conseguiu recuar das baixas da sessão e atualmente está negociando com fraqueza leve em torno da região 1157. As expectativas firmes de uma eventual ação de aumento da taxa do Fed nesta semana têm restringido os fluxos para o metal precioso não-produtivo. Além disso, as taxas de juros mais altas previstas nos EUA têm impulsionado o dólar americano e também estão pesando sobre commodities denominadas em dólar - como o ouro. Além disso, o acordo de produção de petróleo entre a Opep e a Opep desencadeou uma nova onda de risco na segunda-feira, que está acabando com a demanda por ativos tradicionais e fez pouco para deter o movimento de depreciação do metal amarelo. . Os investidores aguardam ansiosamente pelo resultado da reunião de política monetária do Fed, prevista para ser anunciada na quarta-feira. A declaração de taxa acompanharia forneceria projeções de formuladores de políticas para taxas de juros e números de crescimento, o que ajudaria os investidores a avaliar o ritmo de aperto monetário no próximo ano e determinar a próxima etapa do movimento direcional para o metal precioso. Níveis técnicos a serem observados Qualquer tentativa de recuperação agora parece confrontar a resistência imediata perto do nível 1160, acima da qual o impulso poderia ser estendido para a resistência horizontal 1169-70 na área de resistência 1173-75. No lado negativo, a fraqueza abaixo de 1154 pontos de baixa sustentação parece arrastar a mercadoria para o suporte 1150, abaixo do qual o metal parece ir para o teste da área de suporte 1140. 08:35 GBP / USD upside limitado por 1.2600, dados, FOMC eyed O Sterling está postando perdas marginais contra o dólar no início da semana, com GBP / USD marginalizado abaixo da alça de 1.2600. GBP / USD aparece suportado perto de .12580 O par está seguindo a ausência generalizada de uma direção clara nos mercados globais, navegando dentro de uma faixa estreita e com ganhos até agora limitados em torno da barreira crítica de 1.2600. Olhando para o futuro, a GBP deve permanecer sob pressão à luz da divulgação dos números de inflação para o mês de novembro (terça-feira) e do relatório do mercado de trabalho (quarta-feira), embora o evento mais saliente seja a reunião do FOMC na quarta-feira. Lembre-se de que um aumento de 25 pb parece já estar totalmente precificado, embora os participantes do mercado mudem sua atenção para a trajetória da taxa futura e os passos potenciais da Reserva Federal no próximo ano. No lado do posicionamento, os curtas especulativos da GBP foram reduzidos para o nível mais baixo desde o início de agosto, enquanto os curtas líquidos recuaram dos níveis recordes durante a semana encerrada em 6 de dezembro e de acordo com o último relatório da CFTC. Níveis de GBP / USD a serem considerados Ao se escrever o par está perdendo 0,02 a 1,2588 e uma quebra abaixo de 1,2545 (baixa de 9 de dezembro) exporia 1,2530 (sma de 20 dias) e depois 1,2462 (sma de 55 dias). Por outro lado, o próximo obstáculo se alinha em 1.2706 (alta Dec.8) seguido por 1.2767 (100 dias sma) e finalmente 1.2776 (alta Dec.6). 08:34 Cazaquistão EnergyMin: o corte na produção de 20K bpd é simbólico - RTRS O ministro da Energia do Cazaquistão expressou sua opinião sobre o corte na produção de petróleo, observando que o corte na produção de 20k bpd acordado com a Opep é lsquotokenrsquo, acrescentando que não tem planos de limitar a produção nos projetos Kashagan, Karachaganak ou Tengiz. 08:34 USD / JPY lidera o nível 115, olhos em 120 agora Deutsche Bank Taisuke Tanaka, estrategista do Deutsche Bank, espera que o USD / JPY chegue a 120 se as novas previsões de rendimento dos EUA pudessem se materializar. ldquoO USD / JPY já atingiu o nível previsto para o ano de 2015. Nossa previsão revisada de 115, anunciada em 15 de novembro, baseou-se nos rendimentos presumidos de 10 anos em 5 anos e em títulos de 2 anos dos EUA em 2,5, 1,75 e 1,25, respectivamente. de junho de 2017. No entanto, e como já mencionamos repetidamente, um novo overshoot é possível, dependendo do grau de autonomia para a macropolítica que o Sr. Trump se comprometeu a fazer. A nossa equipe de economistas aumentou ainda mais as previsões de crescimento econômico dos EUA para 3,0 para 2017 e 3.3 para 2018. Eles afirmam que, no curto prazo, o crescimento provavelmente será consideravelmente superior a 4 em uma base trimestral, podendo chegar a 5 em 12 trimestres. Ele até diz que essas previsões são conservadoras e que, se elas se mostrarem incorretas, o PIB americano estaria no rumo certo para superar nossas expectativas. "Nosso estrategista de taxa de juros nos EUA aumentou suas projeções de rendimento dos EUA para 3,60, 2,75 e 1,30 (mesmos vencimentos). acima) em junho de 2017. Em 15 de novembro, assumimos uma rápida alta impulsionada pelo mercado Trump e definimos nossa previsão de USD / JPY em 115 com base principalmente no rendimento de cinco anos. No entanto, o cenário que estas novas previsões de rendimento dos EUA podem materializar sugere que o USD / JPY atingiu os 120 (embora ainda não tenhamos revisado oficialmente a nossa previsão USD / JPY). anunciado em 14 de dezembro) para mostrar alguma melhora após o rally de mercado Trumpdriven, que confirmaria o sentimento de mercado favorável ao risco. Espera-se que o FOMC decida sobre um aumento da taxa em 14 de dezembro, e isso também seria um claro apoio ao USD / JPY. No entanto, mesmo este aumento da taxa pelo Fed não parece particularmente importante para a negociação atual do USD / JPY. O mercado já considerou em várias subidas de taxas nos próximos 1-2 anos, portanto a alta antecipada desta semana é apenas um pequeno passo. Ao olhar para o USD / JPY nos próximos meses, precisamos considerar tanto um overshoot quanto uma correção após o rápido rally. No entanto, a tendência é claramente para cima. O par de NZD / JPY de 08:29 deve ir para a próxima resistência em 83.40 - Natixis Research Team da Natixis sugere que a perspectiva NZD / JPY permanece favorável, como um canal ascendente permanece em evidência no diário gráfico e uma bolha ascendente ainda está se desenvolvendo no gráfico semanal. Sob essas condições, o par deve seguir para a próxima resistência em 83.40 (limite superior do canal descendente em vigor desde dezembro de 2014).rdquo ldquoUm rompimento acima dessa resistência instilaria novo impulso ascendente, abrindo caminho para uma recuperação duradoura rumo a 84,70 (61,8 Retração de Fibonacci de 94,08-69,04 onda descendente de dezembro de 2014 a junho de 2016) antes de 86,30 (faixa superior de Bollinger mensal).rdquo ldquoTire partido de qualquer recuo para 80,70 para comprar o NZD / JPY, com como principal alvo 86,30 (definindo o stop loss O primeiro corte nem sempre é o mais profundo - ANZ Philip Borkin, economista sênior da ANZ, observa que, em um movimento surpresa, a Arábia Saudita anunciou sua intenção de cortar a produção de petróleo ainda mais do que o que foi acordado com os seus homólogos da OPEP no mês passado. De passagem depois do anúncio feito por um número de países não membros da OPEP no fim de semana (11 no total, incluindo Rússia e México) para cortar a produção em 558 mil barris por dia, o ministro do petróleo saudita afirmou que eu posso dizer com absoluta A certeza de que a partir de 1º de janeiro seria cortar e cortar substancialmente para estar abaixo do nível com o qual nos comprometemos em 30 de novembro. Claramente, todos os olhos estarão sobre como os preços do petróleo levarão as últimas notícias, mas seria de apoio, o que poderia, portanto, ter implicações mais amplas para os gostos do quadro mais amplo de commodities, moedas de commodities, estoques de energia e medidas baseadas no mercado de expectativas de inflação para começar a semana.'Mas quão importante é um rally estamos falando Bem, o fato de 1 ) o mercado de petróleo ainda tem um grande estoque pendente para trabalhar 2) os produtores de óleo de xisto continuam esperando nas asas por qualquer salto de preço decente e 3) a história nos ensinou a ser um pouco dada a não-conformidade com tais acordos, é difícil ver os preços do petróleo subindo significativamente mais alto ainda. rdquo 08:24 Russian OilMin Novak: Preços do petróleo entre 50-60 / bbl confortável para o orçamento russo Ministro russo de energia Novak está nos fios agora, via Reuters, observando que a faixa de preço do petróleo entre 50-60 / bbl está alinhada com o orçamento russo. 08:19 EUR / USD consolida a recuperação asiática antes da semana do FOMC A recuperação do par EUR / USD de quase 2016 baixas perdeu pouco mais de 1,0570, com os touros agora lutando para manter as ofertas à medida que avançamos para a abertura européia sinos. EUR / USD volta acima do pivot diário em 1.0544 Atualmente, o EUR / USD torna-se positivo perto de 1.0560, embora encontre novos vendedores à espreita à frente do último. O principal par de moedas interrompeu sua recente série de perdas e recuou nos lances em meio a uma fase prolongada de consolidação otimista do dólar, depois da semana passada, à luz da divergência da política monetária em favor do Fed e do dólar. A recuperação do mercado parece frágil e de curta duração, já que se espera que o dólar norte-americano domine o polo daqui para frente, com uma alta de 25 pbs no preço do Fed pelos investidores. Enquanto os mercados também continuam a digerir a orientação dovish fornecida pelo BCE na semana passada. À frente da decisão do FOMC que deverá ser entregue na segunda metade desta semana, os mercados aguardarão ansiosamente o sentimento do ZEW alemão e os dados das vendas de varejo dos EUA para novos incentivos sobre o par. Níveis Técnicos EUR / USD Em termos técnicos, o par encontra a resistência imediata 1.0607 (5-DMA). Uma quebra além da última, as portas serão abertas para um teste de 1.0621 (20-DMA) e de lá para 1.0642 (10-DMA). Por outro lado, o suporte imediato é colocado em 1,0526 (baixa de 5 dias) abaixo do qual 1,0503 (baixa de vários meses) e 1,0456 (baixa de março de 2015) poderiam ser testadas. 08:16 USDCAD: Aumentar o tempo de compra do amplificador - TDS Mazen Issa, estrategista sênior de FX da TDS, sugere que insira uma posição longa no USDCAD, entre 1,3150, meta de 1,3650, stop-loss de 1,2900. ldquo Desde USDCAD não conseguiu sustentar uma quebra acima de 1.3600 (50 nível Fibo de 2016 altos / baixos) em 15 de novembro, a ação do preço foi notavelmente pesada. Há muito tempo, vemos os riscos em torno do USDCAD se elevarem de uma perspectiva fundamental, mas esperamos paciência, apesar das avaliações atraentes. Pensamos que o ponto de virada está próximo. A área de 1.3100 / 50 atuou como uma zona de pivô chave para o USDCAD. Acreditamos que um novo teste dessa área ofereça um ponto de entrada técnico mais limpo e mais atraente, reforçado com um sólido suporte de linha de tendência para restabelecer os longos USDCAD da empresa. Enquanto o CAD tem sido uma das melhores moedas contidas dentro do complexo G10 desde o ponto de eleição dos EUA que não deve ser desconsiderado, achamos que será difícil para o CAD se desvincular de um cenário de US $. Embora não o nosso caso base, nós Acho que outro corte no BoC continua sendo um risco não trivial em 2017, e que pode ser considerado em meados do ano. Atualmente, o mercado de OIS está precificando uma modesta probabilidade de um aumento de taxa no terceiro trimestre do próximo ano (7bps), o qual fortemente nos inclinamos, apesar de notarmos que um catalisador de curto prazo para mudar a dinâmica de front-end permanece elusivo por enquanto. De fato, nossos economistas aplicam uma probabilidade subjetiva de 30-40 de um corte no ano que vem, pois os riscos para as perspectivas de crescimento permanecem com o lado negativo: a rotação de exportação tem sido desigual, o investimento continua decepcionante, os desequilíbrios do mercado imobiliário persistem e nós julgamos o multiplicador fiscal assumido pelo BoC como muito alto. A recente declaração de BoC observou que a folga econômica é grande no Canadá em comparação com os EUA. Para nós, este reconhecimento explícito do BoC cimenta a ideia de que a política irá divergir por algum tempo. "De qualquer forma, os preços do petróleo devem rolar para 60 / bbl em relação a 2017. Acreditamos que muitas das mais recentes notícias do acordo pós-OPEP já estão no preço. e que uma Presidência Trump deve manter os rendimentos UST elevados. Contra esse pano de fundo, esperamos que a G10FX mostre maior deferência aos spreads de taxas. O USDCAD não é uma exceção, embora um perfil um pouco mais alto para o petróleo deva limitar o overshoot implícito nas taxas. A próxima reunião do Fed deve revelar um tom cauteloso / aumento dovish. Usaríamos isso como uma oportunidade para se transformar em USDCAD enquanto se aproxima Janeiro, o que tende a ser o mês de melhor desempenho (mesmo quando a subida surpresa de janeiro de 2015 é excluída).rdem 08:00 Ordens de Máquinas-Ferramenta do Japão (YoY) aumentadas para -5,6 em novembro de -8,9 07:32 USD / CNY recupera 6,90 à medida que o USD se fortalece à frente do FOMC A moeda chinesa retomou seu declínio em relação à sua contraparte americana na segunda-feira, após uma pequena recuperação na última sexta-feira. seus seis principais pares na expectativa de que o Fed aumentará as taxas em 25 pb nesta quinta-feira. Um trader de um grande banco chinês em Pequim, "O yuan enfrenta pressão de depreciação à medida que o dólar dos EUA se fortalecia antes do esperado aumento da taxa nesta semana". O yuan enfrenta pressão de depreciação à medida que o dólar se fortalecia antes do esperado aumento da taxa nesta semana. O Yuan enfraqueceu por dólar também quando o banco central chinês, o PBOC, baixou a taxa Yuan 6,9086, 114 pontos base inferior à correção de sexta-feira de 6,8972. Enquanto isso, o par USD / CNY quase inalterado em 6,9077 no meio do dia, flertando com altas diárias de 6,9085. 07:28 CAD: Mais um passo em direção a 1.3080 - BBH Research Team da BBH observa que o dólar canadense foi o mais forte dos principais, ganhando 2 em relação ao dólar americano. Os preços estáveis do petróleo em níveis elevados e o fato de que o desconto do Canadá em um período de dois anos terminado nos mínimos da semana podem ter sido fatores contribuintes. Normalmente, o dólar canadense apresenta bom desempenho em um ambiente forte em dólar americano. No mês passado, o dólar americano foi repelido depois de testar o objetivo de 50 retracement do movimento de descida desde que a alta plurianual foi estabelecida no início do ano um pouco abaixo de CAD 1.4700. ”Os indicadores técnicos estão ficando esticados, e o dólar canadense reforçou seis das últimas sete sessões. Se o movimento não estiver esgotado, pode haver mais uma perna na direção de CAD1.3080. Um movimento para trás acima de CAD1.3220 pode ser o primeiro sinal de que o dólar norte-americano caiu. dezoito 07:15 Outra onda de repatriação no USD - Westpac A eleição presidencial dos EUA deu novo impulso a outro feriado fiscal de repatriação dos lucros corporativos dos EUA mantidos no exterior A equipe de pesquisa do Westpac espera que as ações dos Estados Unidos e o dólar americano sejam os principais beneficiários, principalmente em 2018. A próxima administração Trump, auxiliada por um Congresso controlado pelos republicanos, deve buscar uma ampla reforma tributária nos EUA. Uma parte importante de qualquer reforma tributária será como lidar com 2,6 trilhões de lucros acumulados mantidos por empresas norte-americanas. Quaisquer mudanças no código tributário americano nessa frente poderiam dar um impulso significativo às ações dos EUA e ao dólar americano. Ao contrário da maioria dos países avançados, o código norte-americano arrecada os lucros obtidos pelas subsidiárias estrangeiras de empresas norte-americanas. No entanto, o código tributário também permite que empresas norte-americanas reinvestam indefinidamente lucros no exterior e adiam pagar a totalidade da alíquota de imposto corporativo sobre esses lucros até que sejam oficialmente repatriados pelos EUA, através de um dividendo ou transferidos de volta para a controladora americana. Para evitar o pagamento do imposto, as empresas americanas acumularam somas substanciais no exterior, cerca de 2,6 mil milhões. A eleição presidencial dos EUA deu novo impulso a um feriado fiscal de repatriação como parte de uma revisão mais ampla do sistema tributário dos EUA. O momento exato é incerto, mas é razoável supor que a legislação será aprovada no final de 2017 e implementada em 2018. O aumento potencial para a economia é questionável, mesmo que a legislação exija que os fundos sejam destinados a contratações e investimentos como em 2004. As folhas de pagamento e o investimento foram sólidos em 2005 durante o feriado fiscal de repatriação, mas foram sólidos também em 2004 e 2006. O atual tesouro de 2,6 trilhões no exterior é altamente concentrado nas indústrias de tecnologia, energia e farmacêuticos - indústrias que já desfrutam de mais dinheiro livre do que sabem com o que fazer. Em qualquer caso, as estruturas criativas permitem que as empresas norte-americanas acessem regularmente esses lucros no exterior. Por exemplo, algumas corporações como a Apple se envolvem em repatriação seletiva de empréstimos nos mercados de capitais dos EUA contra suas participações no exterior para financiar recompras de ações e evitar o pagamento dos impostos. O Stock será o principal vencedor. Como em 2005, os lucros repatriados provavelmente serão usados para financiar recompras de ações. O dólar também deve ser um grande beneficiário. Cerca de 30% do estoque de ganhos dos EUA no exterior foram repatriados em 2005. A aplicação de uma taxa semelhante ao atual tesouro de 2,6 trilhões de dólares implica uma alta de 780 bilhões em repatriação. Mas uma maioria substancial disso é provavelmente já denominada em USD. Os registros da empresa da Apple e Microsoft, os dois maiores detentores de ganhos no exterior mostram que 80 de seus ganhos combinados no exterior são mantidos em títulos em dólares. Isto é insignificante em comparação com o volume de negócios diário de FX, mas ainda assim representa mais um positivo para o USD, que já está a receber um apoio sólido do aumento do apoio ao rendimento e dos elevados riscos políticos da UE. As moedas mais vulneráveis parecem ser o EUR, CAD, GBP e CHF. Além disso, pode haver benefícios contínuos a longo prazo para o USD. Um declínio potencialmente significativo na taxa de impostos corporativos dos EUA de 35 para 15 (plano Trump39) ou 20 (o plano republicano da Câmara) reduziria o incentivo para acumular dinheiro no exterior, especialmente se o plano republicano da Câmara fosse adotado. Sua política exige um único imposto de repatriação e, em seguida, uma mudança para um sistema de tributação cotidiana, acabando com a prática dos EUA de taxar permanentemente os lucros globais. de 07:10 USD / JPY barraca de correção, retoma 115,50 O dólar dos EUA recuperou o equilíbrio contra o seu homólogo japonês nos negócios do final da Ásia, enviando o USD / JPY de volta para os máximos de vários meses de 115,62. USD / JPY repete apoio diário ao S3 O par dólar-yen paralisou uma breve correção de baixa de altas de 10 meses, com os bulls revidando o controle em meio à demanda ressurgente de USD em um ambiente de mercado favorável ao risco, provocado pela recuperação do preço do petróleo e aposta em uma iminente alta do Fed esta semana. No início do dia, o iene encenou uma recuperação morna, derrubando USD / JPY para 115,15 baixas, em resposta ao afundamento do BOJ e ao aperto do falatório. Enquanto as encomendas otimistas das máquinas do núcleo japonês também ofereceram algum descanso aos ienes. O spot é visto pela última vez a mudar de mãos em 115,51, subindo 0,10 no dia. USD / JPY Níveis técnicos a serem observados O principal encontra resistência imediata em 115,62 (alta em vários meses). Uma quebra acima do último, o major poderia testar 116 (figura zero) e 116.50 (níveis psicológicos) além do último. Enquanto para o lado negativo, o suporte imediato é visto em 115 (número redondo) em seguida em 114.77 (5-DMA) e abaixo em 114.29 (10-DMA). 07:09 JPY e GBP perdendo força contra a equipe de pesquisa BBH, da BBH, observa que a última sessão foi a primeira desde fevereiro que o dólar americano permaneceu acima de JPY114,00 e, de fato, fez uma nova alta de 10 meses perto de JPY115. 30 ldquoA área de JPY115,60 corresponde a um retrocesso de 61,8 do declínio do dólar desde que atingiu quase JPY126 em junho de 2015. Acima, há um potencial inicial para JPY116,00-JPY116,20. Os indicadores técnicos não confirmaram as novas altas do dólar, mas o momento é forte. O apoio inicial é visto perto de JPY114.50.rdquo ldquo Enquanto o yen foi a moeda mais fraca na semana passada, derramando quase 1,5, a libra esterlina estava logo atrás com uma queda de 1,25. Sterling fez um adiantamento de duas semanas. Dados decepcionantes, ampla força do dólar e o apoio do parlamento britânico ao cronograma do governo para desencadear o Artigo 50 cobraram um pedágio. No início da semana, a libra esterlina atingiu 1,2775, seu nível mais alto desde pouco antes da queda do flash, mas perto da média móvel de 100 dias (1,2795). Não negociou acima da média móvel desde o referendo. A área de 1,25 oferece suporte inicial, e uma pausa pode ver a 1.24 em pouco tempo. Uma quebra de 1.23 provavelmente sinalizaria o fim da correção de dois meses. O RSI recusou. Os MACDs e Slow Stochastics podem capotar perto da semana. Às 07:03 NZD / AUD para atingir a área de 0.9700 durante as próximas semanas - Westpac NZD / AUD cruza mantendo o ímpeto ascendente e visa a área de 0.9700 durante as próximas semanas, espera Imre Speizer, Research Analista da Westpac. A área assinalou um pico em Julho e deverá pelo menos fornecer alguma resistência a este rali. De qualquer forma, o AUD registou um fraco desempenho do NZD, apesar das commodities da UA superarem facilmente o NZrsquos. Parte da razão é, sem dúvida, o cepticismo de que as mercadorias da UA podem sustentar a corrida. Outra é a recente corrida de decepcionantes notícias econômicas da UA. "Nós suspeitamos que o fraco resultado do terceiro trimestre do PIB na semana passada (-0,5 qoq) foi uma impressão desonesta, com construção de moradias e infra-estrutura pública com certeza se recuperando. Até agora, os dados de exportação têm defasado o aumento nos preços das commodities, por isso devemos obter algumas boas notícias também nessa época. Após a última semana, dados ruins do PIB, qualquer indício de um melhor Q4 será observado de perto. Esta semana em Tue itrsquos Nov NAB confiança do negócio, e em qua nós vemos o sentimento do consumidor de dezembro de Westpac / MI mas o foco do mercado será dados do trabalho do novembro (Thu). Outra leitura deficiente dos trabalhos reforçaria o sombrio tema doméstico. de três meses: Eventualmente, vemos o NZD / AUD começando a reflectir o desempenho superior das mercadorias da UA, bem como melhores dados económicos à frente. Esperamos um reteste da área de 0,9400 que foi visitada várias vezes durante o segundo semestre de 2016. “O modelo de valor justo sugere que o cross está em torno de 10 superavaliados no momento, com base no movimento até o momento nos respectivos preços de commodities e taxas de juros. . Wersquore não espera que a cruz retorne ao valor justo em breve, uma vez que tem sido supervalorizado por grande parte deste ano, mas deve pelo menos começar a se mover nessa direção..diz 06:47 USD / CAD consolida a baixa em meio a 5 rali do WTI O dólar canadense mantém a faixa perto de altas de dois meses contra a sua contraparte americana nos negócios do final da Ásia, com USD / CAD pairando acima de 1,31. USD / CAD abandonado em rali de petróleo Atualmente, o par de USD / CAD é visto pela última vez trocando as mãos em 1.3123, abaixo de -0.50 até agora, tendo publicado novas baixas de dois meses em 1.3115 nos primeiros acordos. A maior abriu com uma diferença de baixa na Ásia nesta segunda-feira, com os preços do petróleo subindo acima de 4 depois que os comerciantes asiáticos aplaudiram o acordo de corte de produção de petróleo entre a Opep e o acordo não-OPEP foi alcançado no fim de semana. Enquanto o comprometimento da Arábia Saudita com cortes agressivos também contribuiu para atenuar as preocupações com excesso de oferta, reforçando as propostas para o ouro negro e, assim, eventualmente, elevando a demanda pelo Loonie ligado a recursos naturais. O petróleo é o principal produto de exportação da Canadarsquos. O momentum de baixa visto atrás do USD / CAD também é parcialmente atribuído à atividade comercial moderada no dólar dos EUA contra seus principais concorrentes. Olhando para o futuro, os principais serão influenciados pelo sentimento em torno dos mercados de petróleo e dos próximos lançamentos macroeconômicos dos EUA, que devem ser divulgados nesta semana. Enquanto o principal evento movente do mercado para o spot esta semana continua a ser a decisão da taxa do FOMC. Níveis Técnicos de USD / CAD Para o lado positivo, as próximas resistências são vistas perto de 1.3157 (diária R1) e 1.3172 (5-DMA) e de lá para 1.3200 (número redondo). Para baixo, o suporte imediato pode estar localizado em 1.3100 (figura redonda) e abaixo disso em 1.3085 (200-DMA) e em 1.3050 (18 de outubro baixo). 06:35 EUR: Bounces do nível 1.05 parecem estar ficando cada vez mais rasas - O BBH Euro do nível 1.05 parece estar ficando mais raso, já que os indicadores técnicos não são particularmente úteis, dadas as fortes oscilações nas duas direções nos últimos dias, observa Research. Equipe na BBH. ldquoThat disse, o aperto do euro até quase 1.0875 provavelmente completou a correção de alta que estávamos antecipando. Esperamos o rendimento da área de suporte de 1,05, com o euro caminhando para 1,0430-1,0450 antes que a pressão corretiva surja novamente. Se o 1.05 não for quebrado, os traders do momentum ficarão extremamente desapontados, e um retorno de volta para 1.07 não surpreenderá. rdjo 06:33 Japão Índice de Indústria Terciária (MoM) subiu de -0,1 para 0,2 em outubro 06:32 NZD / USD permanecer em uma faixa de 0,7000-0,7220 durante a semana seguinte - Westpac Depois de um breve pop acima de 0,7200, NZD / USD não conseguiu avançar ainda mais, apesar de um fluxo contínuo de boas notícias econômicas, como observado por Imre Speizer, Analista de Pesquisa da Westpac. ldquo Isso é porque a força dos Estados Unidos tem superado os fundamentos da NZ. Esperamos que o NZD / USD permaneça na faixa de 0.7000-0.7220 durante a semana seguinte, com a reunião do Fed apresentando riscos positivos. É improvável que o calendário de eventos da NZZsquos desta semana atrapalhe o NZD, consistindo apenas em dados de segundo nível. Nós temos a atividade de fabricação Q3, o trabalho de construção do Q3, fabricação PMI, confiança do consumidor ANZ, e REINZ mercado imobiliário. Na semana seguinte, recebemos o próximo leilão de produtos lácteos GDT que será assistido, uma vez que o preço do Futuro está prevendo um aumento de 2, o que pode não ser suficiente para obter uma resposta do NZD dada na semana passada. De fato, embora exista uma relação entre os preços dos produtos lácteos e o NZD no longo prazo, ele é fraco na melhor das hipóteses a curto prazo. "" Há um evento político digno de nota. Na semana passada, assistiu-se à renúncia inesperada de John Key ao cargo de primeiro-ministro, após oito anos no cargo, e após uma votação em caucus, o anterior vice-primeiro-ministro Bill English tomou as rédeas de hoje. O Sr. English é ministro das Finanças há oito anos e deve manter sua abordagem relativamente conservadora em relação à administração fiscal. Mas a perda de um líder político bastante popular na corrida para uma eleição adiciona uma camada adicional de incerteza às perspectivas. E na margem, aumentou as probabilidades de uma eleição instantânea. De qualquer forma, como mencionado acima, NZD / USD é principalmente uma história dos EUA no presente. o que significa que estaremos acompanhando de perto os eventos dos EUA por pistas do NZD / USD durante a semana seguinte. Nesse ponto, o evento de destaque será a reunião do Fed em 14 de dezembro, com uma caminhada quase certa (e mais do que totalmente precificada). A declaração deve ser equilibrada, ao invés de falsa, e é improvável que as autoridades levantem projeções de crescimento ou de pontos, até que surjam mais detalhes sobre os planos fiscais e de infra-estrutura do Trumprsquos. Se o dólar dos EUA fizer uma pausa ou retroceder em resposta ao anúncio do FOMC, o NZD / USD vai se reunir em três meses: esperamos que o dólar dos EUA eventualmente retome sua tendência de alta, à medida que a economia dos EUA melhora ainda mais e as taxas de juros dos EUA sobem mais. e a membresia do FOMC torna-se mais falsa. Isso poderia eventualmente fazer com que o NZD / USD caísse para 0,70 ou menor. ”06:26 USD: Concluindo o ano com uma nota firme - BBH Research Team da BBH observa que o dólar americano está terminando o ano com uma nota firme uma alta de 10 meses em relação ao iene antes do fim de semana, enquanto o euro permanece a uma curta distância do fundo da sua faixa de dois anos, perto de 1,05. No mês passado, os retrocessos do dólar têm sido geralmente superficiais e breves. A reunião do FOMC desta semana é o último grande evento do ano. O dólar pode continuar a ser bem suportado antes da reunião, onde um aumento da taxa é totalmente descontado. As autoridades do Fed podem rever as previsões de crescimento e inflação, e ainda não levar em conta a extensão do estímulo fiscal que pode ser entregue. A equipe do presidente eleito indicou que o foco econômico inicial será no comércio, e não em impostos ou estímulo. Não obstante, os investidores antecipam estímulos fiscais e uma configuração mais agressiva no Federal Reserve. Ao mesmo tempo, o BCE expandirá seu balanço em 780 mil milhões de euros no próximo ano, e a política monetária extraordinária do Banco do Japão deve continuar, reforçada por um modesto estímulo fiscal. Além disso, enquanto muitos bancos centrais de mercados emergentes vêm reduzindo suas participações do Tesouro para sustentar suas moedas, a demanda do setor privado tem sido forte, de acordo com o interesse dos investidores europeus. Os americanos parecem estar liquidando algumas de suas participações por títulos estrangeiros. Os investidores estrangeiros voltaram ao mercado acionário japonês, mas parece estar na maior parte em uma base protegida por moeda. Nós havíamos previsto que o índice do dólar americano caísse para 99,70 e, possivelmente, 99,00. Ele registrou uma baixa um pouco abaixo de 99,45 na resposta automática ao que apareceu no afunilamento do ECB. Ele se recuperou rapidamente e, antes do final de semana, estava testando uma linha de tendência de curto prazo para menos de 24 de novembro, 30 de novembro e 5 de dezembro. Foi encontrado perto de 101,55 antes do fim de semana e 101,30 no final da próxima semana. A velocidade da recuperação do Dollar Index significa que os MACDs e Slow Stochastics não cruzaram mais para gerar novos sinais de compra, embora possam voltar no começo da próxima semana. Lembre-se, a área de 101,80 é o retracement 61,8 do declínio desde o nível de 121,00 visto em julho de 2001. 06:22 afilado do BOJ vê a compra de títulos lenta em direção a 70 trilhões de ienes - BBG Bloomberg publicou um artigo nesta segunda-feira, observando que o Banco de O Japão (BOJ) tecnicamente reteve sua meta para o aumento anual de títulos do governo em 80 trilhões de ienes (699 bilhões), há sinais de que as compras cheguem perto de 70 trilhões de ienes. Dados compilados pela Bloomberg mostram que, para o ano até agora, a compra de bônus BOJ anualizada é de 71,7 trilhões de ienes, contra 75,3 trilhões em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado. Economista chefe de mercado da Nomura Securities Co., The BOJ não precisará comprar 80 trilhões de ienes para manter a curva de juros sob controle. Em algum momento eles vão abandonar a linguagem em 80 trilhões de ienes. quem 05:59 Nikkei volta em território positivo na base acumulada no ano O índice japonês Nikkei está de volta ao território positivo no acumulado do ano. A surpreendente reviravolta foi alimentada sozinha pela queda do iene japonês. O índice caiu da alta de janeiro de 18.951 para atingir uma baixa de 14.864 em junho. Durante o mesmo período, o dólar-iene caiu de 122,00 para 99,00 níveis. No entanto, o par USD / JPY subiu no segundo semestre deste ano. A tendência de alta se acelerou após a vitória de Trump. O local agora está de olho em 115,00 níveis. Consequentemente, o índice Nikkei subiu para uma nova alta de 2016 de 19.281 níveis. 05:45 O rendimento do Tesouro de dez anos sobe para o mais alto desde junho O rendimento do Tesouro de dez anos subiu para 2.497, o maior desde junho de 2015, com o petróleo subindo para 16 meses atrás do primeiro acordo global sobre petróleo desde 2001 No momento da escrita, o rendimento de 10 anos era negociado pelo menos 2,5 pontos base acima no dia. Enquanto isso, no curto prazo da curva, o rendimento de 2 anos subiu 1,6 pontos base para 1,149. O petróleo subiu 5 na Ásia depois que os membros não-OPEP cortaram 558 mil barris por dia. Em resposta, a Arábia Saudita está pronta para cortar mais do que o acordado em 30 de novembro. O risco resultante nos mercados reduziu a demanda pelos títulos do Tesouro. Furthermore, rally in oil is also likely to push up inflation expectations, which too is supporting the gains in the treasury yields. 05:42 BOJ may soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007 - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story over the weekend, noting that Japanese central bank the BOJ may soon have to resort to tightening for the first time since 2007 in wake of higher inflation expectations from the Trumprsquos presidency. One of central bankingrsquos most aggressive easersmdashthe Bank of Japan (BOJ)mdashmay soon have to think about tightening for the first time since 2007. In a Trump-fueled turnaround, the BOJ may have to lift its 10-year government-bond target from the recently set zero Triggered by expectations that his policies would boost U. S. growth, inflation and interest rates So far, that has been good for Japan, where the weaker yen is brightening exporters39 prospects, helping send Tokyo stocks to 11-month highs 05:30 NZD/USD rebounds to 50-DMA, focus shifts to China data dump The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery into mid-Asia, and now looks to take-out 50-DMA barrier located at 0.7146 amid a broadly subdued US dollar and rally in oil prices. NZD/USD supported at daily S1 Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7143, flirting with session tops reached at 0.7146 in the last hour. The Kiwi is on a roll higher, extending its winning streak into a fourth day today, having staged a solid recovery from a dip below 0.70 handle. The NZD/USD pair remains well bid as investors take the yield-advantage amid a better sentiment towards risk assets, in wake of an oil output cut deal struck between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. However, it remains to be seen whether the major can sustain the ongoing bullish run, as focus now shifts towards tomorrowrsquos Chinese data dump and upcoming FOMC interest rates decision, which is expected to have a significant impact on NZD/USD. NZD/USD Levels to consider To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7203 (100-DMA), above which it could extend gains to 0.7226 (multi-week high) and from there to 0.7250 (psychological levels). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7109 (200-DMA) and from there to at 0.7091 (20-DMA), below which 0.7065 (Dec 5 low) would be tested. 05:16 Moodys on NZ: Half-year economic amp fiscal update for 2016-17 demonstrates strong public finances The US-based ratings agency, Moodyrsquos Investors Service, published its latest report on the Government of New Zealand . titled lsquoGovernment of New Zealand (NZ): Strong Public Finances, Robust Economic Growth Bolster Sovereign Credit Profilersquo on Monday. Key Points from the report: Government forecasts average annual GDP growth of 3.5 over 2017 and 2018, is slightly higher than Moody39s forecast and points to some downside risk to the revenue projections New Zealand will remain among the fastest growing economies in Moody39s Aaa-rated universe The half-year economic and fiscal update (HYEFU) for 2016-2017 demonstrates strong public finances, providing the government with significant financial flexibility to face negative shocks such as the Kaikoura earthquake Moody39s expects policies and reforms that foster economic growth and maintain sound public finances to remain a key focus under a new leadership 05:16 GBP/USD snaps four-day losing streak The GBP/USD pair snapped a four-day losing streak in Asia amid oil-led risk-on action in the markets. The pair ticked higher from the session low of 1.2570 but failed to chew trough offers around 1.26 handle. The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) lifted 2017 GDP forecast to 1.1 from the previous figure of 1.0. Meanwhile, 2018 GDP forecast was revised lower to 1.4. However, the markets did not take note of the BCC forecasts and remain at the mercy of the oil price action, given the empty economic calendar across the globe. GBP/USD Technical Levels The spot was last seen trading around 1.2580 levels. A break above 1.26 (psychological level hourly 50-MA) would expose the hourly 200-MA level and hourly 100-MA level of 1.2617 and 1.2636 respectively. A violation there could yield re-test of 1.2704 (hourly chart hurdle). On the lower side, breach of Asian session low of 1.2570 would expose support at 1.2548 (Aug 12 low), under which the losses could be extended to 1.25 (zero figure). 05:01 Indicators signaling USD/CAD is oversold While intraday moving averages point at a continued USD/CAD depreciation, the latest momentum readings raise the odds of a minor throwback. USD/CAD appears primed for a pullback, at least towards overhead resistance established by the 50-period simple moving average. Consistent declines locked RSI below the 50 mark for most of the last 3 weeks. More noticeable was the recent sell off which led the oscillator plunge below its 25 level. This showed that market participants are keen on selling. In the context of a prolonged down trend, the 4-hour RSI looks now very heavy on the sell side so it could be prone to a squeeze back higher. However, the risks are but still skewed to the downside. 05:01 USD/JPY retreats from 10-month tops, but keeps 115.00 Having peaked at 10-month highs at Tokyo open, the USD/JPY pair took a breather and came under fresh selling pressure over the last hour amid a minor-correction seen in the US dollar across the board. USD/JPY trades above all major DMAs The dollar-yen pair is seen retracing a part of the intraday rally to new ten-month tops, largely on the back of stalled US treasury yields buying, which triggered a corrective slide in the US dollar against its main peers. Also, the major tracks a minor-retreat in the Japanese stocks, with the Nikkei 225 index now reverting towards daily lows. Calendar-wise, we had the Japanese core machinery data, which came in much stronger-than expected, and therefore, the upbeat Japanese data also could have helped rescue the JPY bulls. However, the retreat remains restricted amid persisting risk-on sentiment, spurred by weekendrsquos OPEC and non-OPEC oil output deal agreement. While expectations of Fed tightening this week also keeps the sentiment buoyed around the USD/JPY pair. The spot is last seen changing hands at 115.25, reversing from 10-month highs of 115.62, down -0.10 on the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 115.62 (multi-month high). A break above the last, the major could test 116 (zero figure) and 116.50 (psychological levels) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 115 (round number) next at 114.77 (5-DMA) and below that at 114.29 (10-DMA). 04:48 OPEC s global producer pact could signal oil market metamorphosis Platts SampP Global Platts, the leading independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodities and energy markets, believes ldquojoint output cut pact highlights a show of strength and unity across global producers that could mark a new era in cooperation aimed at bringing stability back to global oil marketsrdquo. Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi Arabia said it could cut below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Platts says, ldquoSaudi is making it clear to the global market: the kingdom wants the output deal it negotiated with major producing countries to stick, even if it has to cut production more than it already committed to. rdquo 04:45 UKs BCC: UK s current GDP growth rate won t last BBC News The UKrsquos British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) upgraded its 207 growth forecasts for the UK economy, although warned that higher growth prospects are unsustainable in wake of uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship. ldquoThe business body expects 2.1 GDP growth this year, up from the 1.8 it forecast just three months agordquo ldquoBut uncertainty over the UK39s EU relationship and higher inflation will quotdampen medium term growthquot ldquoIt expects UK GDP to grow 1.1 next year, and 1.4 in 2018rdquo ldquoHowever, its 1.1 forecast for next year would mark the weakest annual rate of growth for the UK since the 2008 financial crisisrdquo 04:38 AUD/USD lifted by Oil deal-driven risk-on The AUD/USD pair staged a solid comeback, after a weaker Asia opening, now taking the rate beyond the mid-point of 0.74 handle amid a risk-friendly market environment, underpinned by weekendrsquos oil output cut deal. AUD/USD recovers to test 10-DMA at 0.7455 Currently, the AUD/USD pair trades 0.11 higher at 0.7456, retracing from session tops placed just ahead of 5-DMA at 0.7464. The overnight rally in oil prices after markets cheered an oil output cut finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday, provided some impetus to the resourced-linked AUD. Moreover, oil deal-induced risk-on trades across the markets also collaborated to the bullish sentiment around the higher-yielding emerging market currency, while the US dollar remains broadly subdued. Further, analysts at Goldman Sachs lifted copper prices forecasts for next year, which also helped the Aussie to take on a minor-recovery from a brief dip to 0.7430 witnessed in the opening trades. However, further upside looks limited as markets turn cautious stepping into the FOMC week, with a 25-bps hike already priced-in by investors. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 0.7505 (Nov 17 high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 0.7575 (Nov 16 high) and 0.7600 (zero figure). On the flip side, the immediate support located 0.7400 (round number). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 0.7385 (key support) and below that at 0.7366 (Dec 1 low). 04:36 Goldman Sachs upgrades Iron Ore and Copper forecasts Iron ore rally post-Trump victory has caught most investment banks on the wrong side of the trade. The metal now trades around 80 per tonne, which is significantly higher than the most calendar 2017 forecasts. Goldman Sachs has hiked its three-month forecast to 65 per tonne. The investment banker has also revised its copper forecast for three months, six months, and 12 months higher to 5800, 6200 and 5600 respectively. 04:23 Goldman Sachs: OPEC, non-OPEC announced oil cuts smaller than expected Analysts at Goldman Sachs present their afterthoughts after an output cut deal was finally reached between the OPEC and non-OPEC producers over the weekend. Key Headlines via Bloomberg: Announced cuts are smaller than expected Implementation remains uncertain Nevertheless, the agreement removes the uncertainty surrounding participation of non-OPEC nations to OPEC reduction Saudi Arabia will help achieve a normalization of inventories. even if it requires a larger unilateral cut The cuts support the bank39s H1 (2017) WTI price forecast of 55/barrel GS bases this forecast on effective 1m b/d cuts Greater compliance to the 1.6 target is therefore an upside risk to price forecast ldquoBetter compliance than bank expects would initially lead to higher prices -- with full compliance adding 6/bbl to its price forecast. but then there would be a bigger producer responserdquo 04:15 China officials: Target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 The State Information Center, an official think tank affiliated with Chinarsquos National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), noted its expectations for the Chinese growth targets in an article published in the China Securities Journal. Key Quotes via Reuters: ldquoThe State Information Center says the target for economic growth next year should be 6.5 and exceeding that level is very likelyrdquo quotIn 2017, China39s economic operations will need to intensify efforts to alleviate deep-seated contradictions and structural problemsrdquo 04:14 Further gains in USD contingent on meaningful fiscal stimulus Goldman Sachs The Dollar index has already rallied from 96.00 levels to 102.12 the highest level since 2003 on the back of heightened odds of a steeper Fed rate hike path in 2017. Research team at Goldman Sachs believes the greenback could strengthen further if there is meaningful fiscal stimulus in the US economy, which is already close to full capacity. Goldman sees Trade Weighted Index (TWI) USD to appreciate close to 7 against the majors over the next 12 months. 04:08 NZIER: Forecasters have revised up their NZ growth and inflation forecasts The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) published a forecast from economists for the NZ economy on Monday, with the forecasts for growth and inflation revised upwards. Forecasters have revised up their growth and inflation forecasts Annual inflation is expected to reach the RBNZ39s 2 mid-point target by March 2019 Continued strong migration-led population growth expected to boost household spending and residential construction further over the next few years Businesses are also feeling more confident, and are more optimistic about investment and hiring Underlying trend improvement in employment demand Unemployment rate expected to fall to 4.6 by March 2018 Skills shortages becoming more apparent, thus wage growth has been revised up Forecasts range from 1.7 to 3.2 for the year to March 2020 04:01 USD/NOK hints at dip buying The hourly 50-period SMA broke through the slower 200-period SMA, adding credence to the recent bullish USD/NOK profile. If USD/NOK spot falls closer to the level where the moving averages crossed, then buyers might see it as an opportunity to reenter. Furthermore, a convincing break through the 50 SMA signals a neutral tone, shifting negative below the 200 SMA. 03:57 EUR/USD headed for turmoil on FOMC and 2017 s political outlook EUR/USD is lower again in Asia after another bazooka from the ECB last week in respect to their QE extensions, coupled with concerns over the Italian and European banking crisis that could be the New Year event instead of China this time around, both are supporting the greenback as a safe haven and a bearish outlook for the single currency, as funding currency. Analysts at Rabobank, in their recent report, said in a summary, quotRecent economic data have been in line with the Fed39s expectations. What39s more, markets have responded positively to the outcome of the elections and are pricing in a 100 probability of a December hike. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75.quot Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank In respect to the ECB, they are committed to their asset purchases programme and the dovish tone of the Draghi has fuelled speculation for parity vrs the dollar. It could be just as well due to the onset of political uncertainties taking fold next year in Euroland. Considering Draghi has extended the QE programme, albeit at a slower pace, he has done so until Dec and 2017 which means there will be plenty of cheap money around to soften the impact of German elections and subsequent volatility in the autumn of 2017. quotOn the assumption that populist parties do not prevail in next spring39s Dutch and French election, we are forecasting EUR/USD at 1.10 on a 12 mth view, quot offered analysts at Rabobank. Meanwhile, spot is currently trading at 1.0551 EUR/USD after a retreat from 1.0875 recently on the ECb decision39s initial spike, before a breakdown through the 1.0620 and the 20 day ma with focus now set on the recent low at 1.0505 and 1.0467, the March low. quotThis remains a major break down point to parity, quot explained analysts at Commerzbank. EUR/USD analysis: Yellen, Trump, and FED39s future up next 03:53 Asian stocks rally on oil deal amp Saudis whatever it takes moment Asian stock markets are having a good time this Monday morning on account of the first global oil deal since 2011 and Saudirsquos readiness to do lsquowhatever it takesrsquo to rebalance the oil markets. Japanrsquos Nikkei gained 1.3 or 247 points to 19,244. The weakness in the Japanese Yen is also driving the stock prices higher. Australiarsquos SampP/ASX 200 rose 0.34 or 18 points to 5580 levels. Oil jumped to its highest level since July 2015 after the non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Following the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it could do more cuts beyond what the level decided on November 30. The data calendar is light across the globe. Hence, oil remains at the center stage of the financial markets. 03:24 Fed December hikes: an annual thing - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank said that it seems like we can add the Fedrsquos annual hike to the calendar as a recurring event in December. quotThe FOMC launched its hiking cycle in December 2015, promising to hike four times this year, but instead we are heading for another single hike in December. The minutes of the FOMC meeting of November 1-2 confirmed the now widely held view that the Fed will hike in the final month of the year. Members generally agreed that the case for a hike had continued to strengthen. But a majority of members judged that the Committee should, for the time being, await further evidence of progress toward the Fedrsquos objectives. Most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon. Some participants noted that recent Committee communications were consistent with a hike in the near term or argued that to preserve credibility, such an increase should occur at the next meeting. Fed Chair Yellenrsquos testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on November 17 suggested that the outcome of the elections a week earlier had not changed the mind of the FOMC. Moreover, she stressed that waiting for further evidence did not reflect a lack of confidence in the economy. Rather, with the unemployment rate remaining steady this year despite above - trend job gains, and with inflation continuing to run below its target, the FOMC judged that there was somewhat more room for the labor market to improve on a sustainable basis than the Committee had anticipated at the beginning of the year. With respect to the impact of the election outcome on the Fedrsquos rate path she said that there was still a lot of uncertainty about fiscal policy next year and its inflationary consequences. Since Yellenrsquos testimony, Q3 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.2 from 2.9, while the Atlanta Fedrsquos nowcast for Q4 GDP growth stood at 2.6 on December 6. This is the pickup in growth that the FOMC was looking for in H2, after the disappointing 0.8 in Q1 and 1.4 in Q2. Whatrsquos more, the Employment Report for November showed that nonfarm payroll growth continued at a decent pace of 178K, and unemployment fell to 4.6 from 4.9. Finally, the PCE deflator ndash which is the Fedrsquos preferred measure of inflation ndash rose to 1.4 in October from 1.2 (year-on-year). So the economic data have passed the Fedrsquos three tests for a rate hike: a pickup in GDP growth, continued labor market improvement, and rising inflation. Whatrsquos more, after a very brief risk-off reaction, the financial markets have responded positively to the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States. In combination with Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, markets are looking forward to a substantial fiscal policy stimulus boosting the economy. The probability of a December hike priced in by the futures markets has risen to 100. So unless there is a major disruptive event between now and December 14, the FOMC will raise its target range for the federal funds rate to 0.50-0.75. It remains to be seen whether the decision to hike will be unanimous. The September dot plot revealed that three participants did not expect to hike at all this year. However, not all participants have voting rights and the recent economic data ndash and the anticipated fiscal stimulus by the new administration ndash could persuade dovish voters. Given the upbeat sentiment in recent weeks, a dissent may not disturb the markets very much. However, if markets have a bad day on December 14, a dissent could make it worse. quot 03:24 Gold drops to lowest since February Gold is feeling the heat of the OPEC and non-OPEC oil output cut deal and the resulting rise in the oil prices. The metal was last seen trading 1155/Oz the lowest since February. Oil spiked more than 5 after the non-OPEC group headed by Russia agreed to cut output by 558K barrels per day. Buoyed the non-OPEC deal, Saudi said it may cut more than what was agreed on November 30. Oil rally is usually good news for the riskier assets. Consequently, investors are moving out of gold in Asia. Gold Technical Levels A break below 1142.97 (Mar 2015 low) would open doors for a sell-off to 1132.08 (Nov 2014 low). On the higher side, violation at the Asian session high of 1159.90 could yield a re-test of 1172.07 (61.8 of Dec 2015 low ndash July 2016 high). 03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.9086 vs 6.8972 03:10 USD/CNY fix projection 6.9156 from 6.8972 - Nomura Analysts at nomura offered their model1 projects for the fix. quotOur model1 projects for the fix to be 184 pips higher than the previous fix (6.9156 from 6.8972) and 151 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.9005. The basket implied change is 202 pips higher than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.9207 from 6.9005). 02:59 Russias Novak cheers global oil deal Russian Energy Ministry Alexander Novak, in an exclusive interview to Bloomberg, cheered the global oil deal and said he is satisfied with the current oil prices. Novak reportedly said on Sunday that oil prices could have dropped to 30-35 per barrel, if OPEC and non-OPEC countries had not struck an output reduction deal. 02:47 AUD/JPY isnt buying the oil surge AUD/JPY, the global risk barometer, is trading sideways despite the rise in oil prices to 16-month highs on the global oil deal. The cross clocked a high of 86.07 and was last seen trading just below 86.00 levels. Fridayrsquos high stands at 86.09. Oil prices spiked after OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to cut output for the first time since 2011. Oil rally usually bodes well for the risk assets. However, the lacklustre action in the AUD/JPY cross today could be suggesting otherwise. AUD/JPY Technical Levels A break below 85.73 (session low) would expose the downward sloping weekly 100-MA of 85.50, under which the losses could be extended to 84.33 (weekly 5-MA). On the higher side, acceptance above 86.00 could yield 86.70 (March high) and 87.00 (zero figure). 02:45 USD/JPY: better bid and about to get bidder for the 120 s USD/JPY has been a strong bid in risk-on markets while investors are backing the greenback as we head towards the end of the year and much uncertainty to come in 2017. The greenback is in demand as the world39s reserve currency while the Yen has been printed so much that it has diluted its safe-haven appeal given the weakness in the Japanese economy and divergence between the BoJ and Federal Reserve. Longer-term rate differentials (10Y spreads) continue to widen the yield gap of over 230bps last week represented the biggest yield gap for the USD since 2010. Fed funds futures continued to imply a 100 chance of a rate hike on 14 December, and two more rate hikes priced in for 2017. Fed preview: The second rate hike is coming - Commerzbank Investors are placing their money where they are predicting a better return, and that is the greenback and US stocks while bonds plummet and global yields rise in the face of reflation. Oil prices/demand and the Yen Also, worth noting, is that Japan is the world39s second largest net importer of fossil fuels and oil remains the largest source of primary energy consumption in Japan. The recent accord between non-OPEC members with OPEC members has seen a rally in oil prices at the start of this week that is not helpful to the ailing Japanese economy - a demand driven environment that this could well spark ahead of this week39s FOMC when full markets get going could weigh on the Yen further. Brent oil clocks 16-month high on first global oil pact The market has penetrated through the 115.41 key fibo level and we are in the sixth weekly decline in the Yen and we have penetrated the 200 week sma at 108.92, marching on through Feb 2016 highs and that reveals the 12039s and 2016 high of 121.68. 120.00/120.10 represents the 78.6 retracement of the move down from 2015. Break to the downside, on say the FOMC holding or a sell the fact on a hike could test the 114.80 level and 112.80 as the floor of the early Dec commencing channel support line. 02:22 Brent oil clocks 26-month high on first global oil pact Brent oil jumped to 57.50 itrsquos highest since mid July 2015 after the OPEC and non-OPEC producers on Saturday reached their first output cut deal since 2001. Non-OPEC producers led by Russia agreed to cut the output by 558K barrels per day. The cut is equivalent to the demand growth seen from China and India. Saudirsquos lsquowhatever it takesrsquo moment Buoyed by the non-OPEC deal, Saudi took a page out of ECB President Mario Draghirsquos book by stating it is ready to lsquodo whatever it takesrsquo ndash cut production below the level agreed on November 30hellip Even below the psychological figure of 10 million barrels per day. Consequently, oil benchmarks spiked in early Asia. Energy/Mining shares could rally Oil and Mining stocks across the globe are likely to cheer the first global oil deal since 2001. UKrsquos FTSE 100 may close-in on 7000 levels, while US indices could see another record high closing. Brent Technical Levels Brent was last seen trading around 56.60/barrel. A break above 57.70 (session high) would open doors for 58.55 (mid-Dec 2015 low). A major hurdle above the same is directly seen at 60.00. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 56.00 (zero figure) could yield a correction to 54.29 (session low), under which a major support is seen directly at 51.80 (weekly 5-MA). 02:05 USD/CAD extends bearish gap as Oil spikes through 54 WTI USD/CAD has been offered on the back of the non-OPEC accord with OPEC members that came to fruition over the weekend. It was a slow reaction in the market, but eventually oil jumped on the back of the pledge to lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago by the 13 non-OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd. That volume is in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply - Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. USD/CAD39s bearish trajectory is intact and has been one-way since late November, observed analysts at Scotiabank, explained that this shows no sign of stopping. quotShort-term trend momentum has strengthened and spot is heading for a test of the broader bull channel trend at 1.3090/00 that comes into focus. quot 02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -1.1 to -2.1 02:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to 3.4 from previous 4.5 01:55 New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (YoY) fell from previous 14 to 2.2 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4, above expectations (0.3) in November 01:51 Japan Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) above expectations (-2.3) in November: Actual (-2.2) 01:51 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) came in at 4.1, above expectations (1) in October 01:40 Oil: what a mover, to highest levels since July 2015 s glut sell-off from 56 Oil is much higher in early Asia on the back of the weekend news with a gap through 52.00 and has reached a high of 54.31 in WTI so far. The 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut crude output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd. This move will be in addition to the 1.2 million barrels a day in cuts from OPEC members, and this is amounting to a total of almost 2 of global oil supply. This accord between OPEC and non-OPEc producing nations is a pact designed to reduce a global oversupply of crude and subsequently lift the value and prices of oil in a bid to support the economies that have been hit hard by the glut of oil that started over two years ago. Across the board, the dollar is mixed, but losing its shine rapidly, especially vrs the oil related bloc such as the pound and the Canadian dollar. We are now at the highest levels in WTI since the summer of 2017 when prices dropped below 56 and plummeted through 51.50 eventually on the oil glut that finally took the price all the way down to 28.93 in February earlier this year. 01:19 NZD/USD: offered below 200 sma on 1hr sticks NZD/USD has continued on the offer in early Asia to start the week ahead of the FOMC as the main event for markets. NZD/USD trades below the 1hr 200-sma at 0.7127 and is testing the downside of the ascending support line from the start of December39s rally at 0.7041. Just today, the front runner, Bill English, was confirmed as Prime Minister after John Key announced his resignation last week. Also, we had net migration for October that came in at 6240, from 6340 in October with wholesale sales 1 for Q3 vrs 1.7 prior seasonally adjusted. Analysts at Westpac explained the US dollar39s extended rise recently has flipped NZD/USD momentum from positive to neutral, in a 0.7000-0.7200 range. NZD/USD 1-3 month: quotThe US dollar has had an impressive rise since the US election and has potential to rise further during the months ahead, not least because the Fed will probably hike in December. Against that, the NZ economy is strong and dairy prices have risen. Overall we are left with a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, targeting sub-0.70,quot - analysts at Westpac offered. 00:41 GBP/USD: finding a bid in the open on a mixed dollar and despite Brexit w/e news GBP/USD has opened on the bid in early Asia while the dollar is mixed across the board - strong vrs the yen, euro and Aussie. Market wrap: US dollar and US rates helped by data - Westpac The pound has opened with a bid from lows of 1.2569 with a high up to test 1.26 the figure. The weekend news hasn39t offered anything significant that can be related to the gaps across the board and mixed outlook, but the pound is robust, despite PM May39s next challenge in respect of Brexit while opponents are launching a fresh legal action to upend her plans for leaving the EU and triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. The campaigners will be appealing to the high court in an effort to keep Britain in the single market and give MP39s powers to veto over the terms of which Britain can leave the EU. Other news came with Fitch affirming the UK AA with a negative outlook. Also, 13 non OPEC members agreed to cut output by 558,000bpd, of which Russia have pledge to cut by 300,000bpd - Non-OPEC counties join the cartel in output cut GBP/USD recently failed 1.2778 and close to the 100 day ma. To the downside, there is room to the 1.2424 two month uptrend on a break below 1.2530/50 local support area and a subsequent sell-off below the 1.25 handle. quotThis remains the break down point to the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows, quot suggested analysts at Commerzbank, adding, quotIntraday rallies are likely to now struggle circa 1.2665.Initial support lies at 1.2302/1.2285.quot 00:10 Prospects of another large economic stimulus package - Nomura Analysts at Nomura explained that the economic stimulus package approved by the Cabinet in August totaled yen28trn, more than had been expected. quotThe reasons for the size of the package were probably the strength of the yen in the first half of 2016 and serious concerns about the impact of Brexit on financial markets and the economy. We expect the economy to begin to slow gradually in FY17 H2 as the impact of existing economic stimulus packages begins to fade. However, with the economy unlikely to slow to below its potential growth rate, we do not expect a large economic stimulus package in FY17.quot quotThat said, in view of the many imponderables, we cannot rule out the possibility that concerns similar to those of this summer may reappear. In our view, such concerns are more likely to be triggered by developments overseas than in Japan. If President-elect Trump39s trade policies turn out to be protectionist, we see a risk that the new administration could favor a weaker dollar and try to pressurize countries with a trade surplus into stimulating domestic demand. Also, we will need to monitor US behavior at G7 and G20 meetings as well as look out for the US Treasury39s Semiannual Report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. Similarly, election victories for protectionist political parties in Europe could trigger the risk-off trade (ie, flows into yen and out of stock markets), which could have a negative knock-on effect on the Japanese economy via its impact on financial markets. If such risks materialized, the likelihood of fiscal expansion would increase. quot Data source: FX Street Disclaimer :This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. Não assumimos nenhuma responsabilidade por qualquer perda decorrente de qualquer investimento feito com base nas informações aqui apresentadas. Legal: HotForex é uma marca registada da HF Markets (Europe) Ltd, uma empresa de investimento cipriota (CIF) sob o número HE 277582. Regulamentada pela Comissão de Valores Mobiliários do Chipre (CySEC) sob o número de licença 183/12. A HotForex é regida pela Diretriz de Mercados de Instrumentos Financeiros (MiFID) da União Européia. O site da Hfeu é operado pela HF Markets (Europe) Ltd. Aviso de Risco: Negociar produtos alavancados como Forex e CFDs podem não ser adequados para todos os investidores, já que eles carregam um alto grau de risco para o seu capital. Por favor, certifique-se de que entende completamente os riscos envolvidos, tendo em conta os seus objetivos de investimento e nível de experiência, antes de negociar e, se necessário, procure aconselhamento independente. Por favor, leia a Divulgação de Risco completa. A HotForex não aceita clientes dos EUA, Canadá, Bélgica, Irã, Sudão, Síria e Coréia do Norte. Copyright 2016 - Todos os Direitos Reservados Aviso de Risco: Negociar produtos alavancados, como Forex e CFDs, pode não ser adequado para todos os investidores, pois eles carregam um alto grau de risco para o seu capital. Por favor, leia a Divulgação de Risco completa. Aviso de Risco: Lembre-se de Forex e CFDs são produtos alavancados e podem resultar na perda de todo o capital investido. Please consider our Risk Disclosure. US Presidential Election just 1 day to go The closing period in the US election race has been far from dull after Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director James Comey reignited Donald Trumps Presidential prospects 10 days ago. He told Congress the FBI had found new emails related to its prior investigation of Mrs Clinton and would need to review them, having closed off its previous investigation back in July. Mr Comeys announcement provided an opening for Mr Trump to claw back ground in polls, throwing the US election open again. Indeed, at its closest point last week Real Clear Politics pointed to just a 1.3 point gap (3 November) between candidates. Furthermore, with the President elected by Electoral College votes and not popular vote share, looking at the closest run state by state races, Mr Trump was seen recovering ground and even stealing a lead in some key states. Events have since turned again. Mr Trumps momentum was brought to halt, just two days before the vote, by Mr Comey saying that after a very quick investigation of the latest emails, the FBI had reaffirmed its earlier decision not to recommend prosecution of Mrs Clinton. The FBI Chiefs statement has been enough to snap markets out of their nervous mood, which saw the SampP 500 run into a 9-day losing streak last week and the Mexican Peso, which has been acting as something of a proxy for the chance of a Trump victory, losing nearly 5 against the USD from 3 November last week. As we go to print, Real Clear Politics is pointing to a Hillary Clinton victory tomorrow, winning 297 of the Electoral College vote to Mr Trumps predicted 241. As tomorrows voting gets underway, the eyes of the world will be on the key swing states for clues on the winner of the Presidential race. Those key states include the likes of Florida (29 Electoral College votes), Nevada (6), North Carolina (4), Ohio (18), Iowa (6), Virginia (13), Arizona (11) and even the likes of Pennsylvania (20) which is now polling more closely than before. Note that there is even talk of independent candidate Evan McMullin challenging Mr Trump in the state of Utah which, with its 6 votes, could even (under certain scenarios) lead to both Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump falling short of the 270 votes needed to win. Turning to election day itself, US news organizations are expected to keep exit polling information under wraps, so predictions will on the whole not come until individual state polls close. For the first time, however, a group of data scientists, journalists and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs are planning to provide detailed projections of who is winning at any given time on Election Day in key swing states it plans to publish a map and tables of its projected results on Slate, the online newsmagazine. The time that polling closes varies by state. Most close at 7pm or 8pm local time. The last to close will be Hawaiis vote which shuts at 6pm local time (11pm ET). The battleground states of Florida and Virginia close relatively early at 7pm ET (12pm GMT). The first results are likely to come from Kentucky and Indiana, typically Republican states, where polls close at 6pm ET. It is impossible to know for sure when we will know the result, but the presidential race is typically called before midnight with the balance of power in the Senate race called shortly afterwards. Major news agencies reported Barack Obamas win in 2012 at about 11:15pm ET. NordFX - ECN/STP, MT4, MT5, Multiterminal Broker Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Generalized Forex Forecast for 01 05 August 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as to EUR/USD one alternative forecast suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support of 0.9550 and the pivot point of 1.1000. The United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision and the corresponding statements, due to be released on Wednesday, were supposed to change this trend. And that was the case: the miracle didnt happen, to the utter disappointment of investors, the interest rate was kept on hold at 0.5, and thus the greenback fell against euro by around 200 points GBP/USD. The powers of bulls and bears turned out to be almost equal, and for the second consecutive week the pair had been moving within the range of 1.30701.3290 with the pivot point of 1.3200. Bearish sentiment was expected to predominate at the market, but news from the USA weighed in on here, whereby the pair ticked up a little bit and transited from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper one the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the retracement was over, and, having broken the support of 105.50, the pair would go south to the next support in the area of 103.50. But a reservation, declaring that the Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision could make certain adjustments, was also made here. And as it turned out to be higher as it was expected (0.1 versus expected 0.2), yen reinforced its positions against the US dollar even more, reaching the level of 102.00 by the end of the week USD/CHF as it was expected, till the mid-week the pair kept bullish bias and went up to the mark of 0.9950. And then, as often happens during coming out of headline news, mirrored the acting of EUR/USD, and, having broken through the support levels of 0.9840 and 0.9800, it went down, wrapping up the week at 0.9700 - the area of the third support, indicated by experts. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: as to EUR/USD, opinions of experts were split equally. 50 of them, backed by the graphical analysis on H1 as well as by 90 of indicators on H4 and on D1, tend to believe that the pair will continue rising and try to consolidate in the area of 1.12501.1300. As for the second half of experts, in their opinion the pair is currently keeping within the upper boundary of the range of 1.09551.1190, having bounced off which it should start going south. With this it should be taken into account that on August 5, 2016 NFP data the key indicator of economic health of the USA - will be released, and they usually result in plummeting of exchange rate of buck. According to some forecasts NFP for this month can drop from 287k to 175k Brexit picture is still mixed, thats why 75 of experts, backed by the graphical analysis and indicators on D1, believe that GBP/USD will continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.30501.3335 with the pivot point of 1.3200. And only 15 of analysts do not rule out the possibility that it will try to retest July lows in the area of 1.2800 again. NFP data as well as ECB meeting on Wednesday and a series of headline news from the Bank of England, due to be released on Thursday, August 04, can influence formation of a new trend as to the future of USD/JPY, 30 of analysts in line with 100 of indicators reckon that the pair will try to go down to the level of 100.00. Almost 40 of experts and the graphical analysis on 1053 4 and D1 do not agree with this version. In their opinion the level of 101.50 will become a strong support to the pair, and backing on it, the pair will make attempts to reach the resistance of 103.60, and if it will be broken through even get to 106.50. And, finally, the third scenario is offered by remaining 30 of analysts, voting for a sideways trend alongside the pivot point of 102.50 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, here experts along with the graphical analysis on H4 predict that the pair will move in a sideways channel of 0.96600.9720 for a while, and afterwards it will go down to the support of 0.9500. Such a scenario will be more likely if the forecast for change in NFP will turn out to be correct. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Generalized Forex Forecast for 08 12 August 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as to EUR/USD, the pair met expectations of both those experts supporting its rise to the area of 1.1250 and those predicting that the pair would start going south. So earlier in the week the pair surged upwards, reaching the mark of 1.1235 on Tuesday, and afterwards it reversed and showed an equal plunge. Acting of the pair on Friday was somewhat surprising, when the USA data were announced. As a reminder, the forecast reckoned that NFP could drop from 287k to 175k. Actual value (255k) indeed came out lower than the previous one, but not enough to meet expectations of the market. Eventually instead of weakening, the greenback strengthened its positions, rebounding by over 100 points versus euro. However then the pair returned to the pivot point of the last six weeks to the area of 1.1090 GBP/USD. Uncertain situation with Brexit seems to balance the powers of bulls and bears for long. Thats why 75 of experts, backed by the technical analysis, believed that the pair would continue its horizontal movement within the range of 1.30501.3335. This is exactly what happened neither ECB meeting, held on Wednesday, nor news from the Bank of England, released on Thursday, nor NFP data, released on Friday, could drive it out of this channel. Eventually the pair ended the week virtually at the lower boundary of the predetermined range at 1.3060 giving forecast for USD/JPY, experts failed to form any consensus - 30 of analysts reckoned that the pair would try to go down to the level of 100.00, 40 of experts believed that it wont be able to break through the support of 101.50, and, finally, the rest 30 voted for its sideways movement. In fact, on the second try the pair could break through the level of 101.50, and having turned it into the resistance, it changed over to a sideways trend, where it had consolidated till the release of NFP, whereby it returned to the area it had started the week from - 102.00 USD/CHF as it was expected, earlier in the week the pair was moving in a sideways channel within 0.96600.9720, and afterwards it went down. However, it failed to get to the support of 0.9500, when rebounded from the last weeks low it reversed and, being supported by the news from Europe and the USA, it moved upwards, wrapping up the week around the key level of the last two years - 0.9800. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: as to EUR/USD, most experts concur that the down trend, started on August 2, will continue, and the next target for the pair will be the support within 1.09501.1000. 85 of indicators on H4 and D1 as well as the graphical analysis on H1 and H4 agree to this scenario. With this, the graphical analysis specifies that early in the week the pair may tick up to the upper boundary of the down trend up to 1.1130, having bounced off which it will go down to the support of 1.1035, and then even further down to 1.0950. If the resistance of 1.1130 is broken through, the pair can rise up to the next resistance of 1.1170, which is at the upper boundary of a three-month descending channel, which had begun on May 3. The third resistance will be at 1.1220 70 of experts expect GBP/USD to rebound upwards from the lower boundary of the horizontal channel of 1.30501.3335, and according to them it will keep within this range for a few days. The remaining 30 of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on D1, believe that the increased volatility of the pair will allow it to expand this range up to the levels of 1.2800 and 1.3500. In this case the upwards rebound should be expected already from this channel of 1.2800. Early next week well see which of this scenarios will play out, however, it should be mentioned that all 100 of experts predict that during August the price will retest the bottom within 1.27001.2800 again for sure as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts share the same opinion that the down trend of the entire 2016 has not finished yet, and the pair should be expected to go down first to the support of 100.00, and then further down to 98.90. With this, according to the graphical analysis on 1053 4, it is possible that before plunging the pair will first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel (clearly seen on D1), which is at the area of 103.50104.00 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, the half of experts believes that the pair will try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. 95 of indicators on H4 and 80 on D1 agree with this. The rest 50 of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 reckon that the level of 0.9800 will become rather a pivot point, alongside which the pair will be moving within 0.97350.9900, than a support. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. July 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX The vast majority of the traders using MT4 terminals are certainly familiar with an opportunity of automatic trading by means of the Signals service integrated into this platform. The main difficulty while subscribing is a selection of the most appropriate signals in terms of combination of risk and profitability. Unfortunately, the analysis shows that many traders/investors pay attention only to the last of all parameters, neglecting possible risks, and it results in negative impact on their deposits. In order to help traders avoid these mistakes, monthly, for more than two years, the leading specialist of NordFX broker company, John Gordon, analyzes the choice of subscribers, making recommendations on how to get the maximum profit in case at minimal risks. As of the end of July TOP-10 most popular signals among subscribers is as follows: I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 86, 784 subscribers), II. Stable Forex Profit (growth 16293, 257 subscribers), III. Lemar Analytics ECN (growth 131, 197 subscribers), IV. Revolution (growth 3987, 143 subscribers), V. Arrow (growth 1853, 112 subscribers), VI. F Cracker (growth 201, 102 subscribers), VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 942, 101 subscribers), VIII. Q2FX 1 (growth 2189, 119 subscribers), IX. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 29, 125 subscribers), X. Setka Real2 (growth 1043, 69 subscribers). quotThe July list of top signals, begins the overview J. Gordon, quotwas updated, as compared to June Top, by only 30, the key positions were taken by old players, on which I will focus today. quot MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 signal has been taking the Ist place for the third consecutive month. With this, Id like to pay your attention, that it has been among Top 3 signals during the entire 2016: January the second place, February, March, April the third place, and during the last three months it proved to be an absolute leader with 784 subscribers, which have entrusted management of around one million dollars to the author of this signal management. Even though, its profitability seems to be more, than modest. Where others show a growth of hundreds and thousands of percents, it showed a growth of only 27 in last seven months So why is it so popular I guess, there are three reasons: - the first one the life span of the signal, 123 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee - the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didnt not exceed 19 during these two and a half years, and in 2016 the maximum drawdown didnt exceed 3. - and, finally, the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free, that is important for investors with small deposits. The second place in the rating is taken by Stable Forex Profit signal, it considerably differs from the first one. Suffice to say, that over seven months of this year the deposit growth made 780. The signal is 83 weeks old, and that is a significant life span. However, on July 8, when the USA unemployment data were released, his author let himself quite a risky trading, and therefore his depositing made 72. The maximum drawdown on this signal makes 55, which is rather dangerous for those investors who used large bonuses on the deposit from their brokers. Let me speak asidequot, the leading analyst of NordFX continues. quotGood thing about the Signals service, developed by the MetaQuotes Software Corp. is that it provides investors the data of online monitoring on more than 50 parameters, which allows evaluating a given signal fully and properly. Furthermore, the users of this service can carry on a direct correspondence with developers of signals and rate them. So, for example, you can read how the subscribers to the signal Stable Forex Profit express their displeasure to its author (which, by the way, promised to change the way of trading to a more cautious, aiming to keep DD within 10-20) at the most critical moments of trade. In my opinion, such an on-line chat with subscribers and their reaction are rather useful addition to the parameters of the technical analysis and give additional information for evaluation of signal quality. So, in respect of the number of signals, for instance, the subscribers complain about slippage, as a result of which their results, when copying, appear to be significantly lower, than the results of the author of the signal. It is very important information, worth paying attention to, especially in case of pips strategies. And, finally, one more signal which ranks among the popularity TOP among subscribers for the fifth month in a row is Q2FX1 impressive profit of 2189 with an admissible maximum drawdown of 32. A certain wariness here causes the fact that in June-July the drawdown chart showed a significant increase, which is, to my mind, connected with desire of the author of the signal to improve his indicators, which were doubled in comparison with April-May ones. And, as we know, the higher the profit, the higher the risks. quotItd be quite convenient, John Gordon adds, quotif developers of the Signals service introduced one more chart into a monitoring complex changes of the number of subscribers. In my opinion, it would really help insufficiently qualified investors understand whether it is worth being signed to a given signal or not. For example, let us consider the above-mentioned MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842: January 246 subscribers, February 250, March 225, April 336, May 447, June 430, July 784. In six months the number of subscribers tripled, suggesting that you should not expect unpleasant surprises from this signal. Or another signal, which riskiness we discussed in the previous reviews a lot, Green Line Signals: February 140 subscribers and a growth of 510, March 296, April 478, May 125. We should admit that it is a quite disturbing signal And, finally, June the nullified deposit and zero subscribers. quot quotI repeatedly warnedquot, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up the overview, quotthat you should be cautious while subscribing to signals which are only several months old. Therefore, selecting this or that signal, I urge to use MetaQuotes service which allows filtering them out not only by the profit size, but also by those parameters, which we paid much attention to today, on the maximum drawdown and the number of subscribers. quot Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Generalized Forex Forecast for 15 19 August 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that early in the week the pair could tick up to the level of 1.1130, and if it was broken through it would go up to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. The pair fully fulfilled the plan: on Tuesday it reached the level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the mark of 1.1170, having turned it into the pivot point, and on Friday it took the high of 1.1220 on news from the USA. After this uprise the pair rushed back, failing to drive out of the range of the three-month descending channel as a reminder, speaking of GBP/USD, 100 of experts expressed the view, that during August the pair would retest the bottom within 1.27001.2800 again for sure. The pair seemed to hear that forecast, and during the whole week it was aggressively striving to go down, however, so far it could drop only to the mark of 1.2900 as to the last weeks acting of USD/JPY, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts pointed down to the area of 98.90100.00, the technical analysis reckoned that before going down the pair would first try to reach the upper boundary of this long-term descending channel within 103.50104.00. Eventually, moving alongside the sideways channel, the pair failed to reach either mark, keeping within 100.96102.65 USD/CHF here the half of experts believed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The rest 50 of analysts reckoned that the pair would fail to do so, and that it would move within 0.97350.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, it may be concluded that both turned out to be right: during the first two days the pair tried hard to consolidate above the level of 0.9800, and afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged, wrapping up the week in the area of 0.9750. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: giving forecast for EUR/USD, most experts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. The area of 1.1230 is expected to act the resistance, and if it is broken through, the pair can make attempts to heave upwards by further 100 points up to the level of 1.1330. 80 of indicators on 1053 4 and D1 agree with this scenario. As for the longer-term outlook, near 100 of experts are sure that the three-month descending trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600 its clear, that speaking of the future of GBP/USD, 100 of indicators point to the south. As to the experts and the graphical analysis, they believe that in the short term the pair will fail to rise above the support of 1.28101.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.32001.3250. It should be specified that around 70 of experts are sure that in the medium term the pair will go south again under the bears pressure, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and if it is broken through, it will go further down to the mark of 1.2500 as to the future of USD/JPY, the majority of experts and the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agree that for a while the pair will continue moving in a sideways channel within 100.70102.50, after which it will upswing to the area of 103.00-104.00. And only 20 of analysts believe that there is still a chance that the pair will go down to the mark of 100.00 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. And this week the experts believe that first the pair will strive for reaching this high, and then it will consolidate above it at the area of 0.98000.9900. Agreeing with this scenario, the graphical analysis specifies that first the pair will make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765 and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.97000.9730, will surge northwards. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Generalized Forex Forecast for 22 26 August 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1230, and if it was broken through, the pair could heave upwards by further 100 points up to the level of 1.1330. Considering the backlash, common to the levels of support/resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered as panned out: having bounced off the level of 1.1153, as early as Tuesday the pair broke through the first resistance and consolidated above it. By Thursday it had approached the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then it returned to the area, specified by experts, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.1325 the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as fulfilled, moreover 100 fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts and the graphical analysis believed that in the short term the pair would fail to rise above the support of 1.28101.2850, and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up to the area of 1.32001.3250, which virtually happened: the last weeks low - 1.2865, high 1.3185 for a couple of weeks there were debates about whether USD/JPY could reach the area of 98.90100.00 or not. First, most analysts agreed with this scenario, and then their number diminished progressively. And when there were only 20 of experts left, the pair hardly passed the support of 100.86, and went one level down, and, finally, reached the landmark level of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point USD/CHF the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, reckoning that before reaching the level of 0.9800 the pair would make several attempts to rise above the resistance of 0.9765, after which it would rebound to the support of 0.97000.9730. But even this forecast can be deemed as partially fulfilled. Indeed, on Monday within hours the pair tried to break through the area of 0.9765. Actually it failed and went down. But therewith the bears appeared to be so strong, that they could easily jump over the timid resistance of the opponent, and, instead of expected 50 points, the fall made around 200 points. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: giving forecast for EUR/USD, around 60 of experts, supported by the graphical analysis on 1053 4, believe that, backing on the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425, after which it will bounce downwards to the area of 1.12001.1230. Two options are indicated as alternative viewpoints: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one a descending trend from earlier in the week with the same target of 1.1200 according to both most experts and the graphical analysis as well as indicators on 1053 4 and D1, the main forecast for GBP/USD for the near future is continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Currently the pair is keeping within the central line of this horizontal channel at 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, its movement northwards, which started last week, will continue. With smooth consolidation, the nearest target for this pair is the resistance of 1.3280, and if it is broken through - 1.3350. The third resistance will be at 1.3500. Alternative viewpoint implies rebounding of the pair from the central line to the lower boundary of the specified channel - 1.2850 predicting the future of USD/JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65 on 1053 1 vote for Buy, 70 on 1053 4 - for Sell and 30 for Buy, and 100 on D1 vote for Sell. There is also no consensus among the experts 50 vote for the pairs rise, 30 - for its fall, and 20 - for its sideways movement alongside the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is indicated as the main support here. The only one, who offers more or less agreed forecast, is the graphical analysis on 1053 4 1080 D1 both imply the pairs rise to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go 300 point lower to the mark of 099.00 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, 80 of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on 1053 4, reckon that last week the pair reached its local bottom at 0.9535, after which for a while it will be moving in a sideways channel of 0.95350.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in an uptrend, the first resistance will be at 0.9710, the next - at 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same - 1.0000. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Olympic DemoCup from NordFX Games, Which Traders Make Money on In parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Forex broker NordFX held its own quotOlympic Gamesquot. And so, the Olympic flame went out. For some this sport event became the way to the medal stand, for others bitterness of defeat. The rush of winning is in human nature, and this refers not only to wrestlers or track and field athletes, but also. to traders. Each of us wants to prove to the whole world, that he is faster, stronger, and more successful than the others. Sportsmen demonstrate it during the Olympic Games and the championships, as for the traders, DemoCup contest, which has been held for six years now by Forex broker NordFX, gives them such opportunity. Only virtual demo accounts participate in this two-week contest, which takes place in the middle of each month. However, the prizes awarded to the winners are quite real monthly prize drawing makes 3500, 3000 from which are divided among 10 winners, and 10 contestants obtain consolation prizes of 50. In total, since March, 2010, about 300.000 dollars were awarded Even though anyone can take part in this contest absolutely for free. The thing, which juices up this contest, is that traders from almost 100 countries take part in it, namely, from: China and Russia, Ukraine and India, Kyrgyzstan and Sri Lanka, Romania, Iran, Thailand, Poland, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Belarus, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Estonia, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Bulgaria, France, Pakistan, Mexico, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Moldova and the USA, Morocco and Syria, Israel and Nigeria, Bangladesh, Great Britain, Peru, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Tajikistan, Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Paraguay, Brazil, Libya, Armenia, Angola, Chile, Spain, Colombia, Ghana, Slovakia, Uruguay, Cote dIvoire, Algeria, Yemen, Argentina, Latvia, Bolivia, Ecuador, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Philippines, Cuba, Kenya, the Republic of South Africa, Taiwan, Peru, Morocco, Venezuela, Tunisia, Guatemala, Italy, Georgia, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Portugal, Bahrain, Mongolia, Kuwait, Swaziland and even from Saint Helena. quotThe geography of the contestants is so broad, that DemoCup can be easily called a world-wide contestquot, the leading analyst of NordFX and the jury member John Gordon says. quotAnd so we thought why not to hold our own Olympics for the traders in parallel with the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. So said - so done: we established the organizing committee, developed special rules and allocated a very plum prize fund of 23100 for the winners. Unlike standard, regular DemoCup, in the Olympic DemoCup we drew three sets total 89 of awards in team and individual scorings. The contests were held from August 8 to August 19, and during all these ten days the heat of the struggle did not subside for even a minute, the traders looked for the slightest opportunity to increase individual and team deposits. And if in the medal ranking at the Olympic Games in Rio the Russian team took only the 4th place, here it could step on the top of victory podium. In a very short time twenty best traders from the Russian team could increase their deposit by 22.5 times from two hundred thousand to almost four and a half million virtual dollars Such that they received yet 10000 real dollars 500 for each member of the quotgoldquot twenty. The national team of Ukraine got quotsilverquot and 5000, and the representatives of China, having overtaken Russian sportsmen in Rio, took only the third place in the Olympic DemoCup, having received 2500 as a prize. As for the host country of the Olympic Games Brazil, it took the fourth place. One more South American country Venezuela - was in Top 5. As for individual scores, Russian trader, who increased the deposit from 10.000 to 1.670.000 dollars, that is by 167 times, became the absolute winner here Having won in all three nominations, he obtained 2000 as an award. The organizers didnt forget about consolation prizes of 50 each, which got representatives of Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, Cuba, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Belarus, Indonesia, Mexico and India. quotId like to emphasizequot, J. Gordon says, quotthat contests on demo accounts require traders to have not less, and sometimes even more self-control. If, trading on the real account, the trader is constantly struggling with a fear to lose his deposit, he has to overcome euphoria from the first successes and the seeming impunity because the money is not real. Of course, a loss wont ruin him, but he wont become a winner either. In DemoCup it is very easy to cross that fine line between a justified risk and mindless adventurism. quot quotIn conclusionquot, the jury member sums up, quotId like to congratulate our winners and invite all traders to take part in the next stages DemoCup, which, as a reminder, unlike the Olympic Games, are held every month. The annual prize fund makes 42000, and you can study the rules of the contest on NordFX website, they are simple. Im sure, that you will appreciate advantageous terms and high quality of the services, which NordFX offers to each client. And the number of our clients, John Gordon smiles, already makes about 1.500.000 a big close-knit family Olympic family Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Generalized Forex Forecast for 29 August 02 September 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast, which for all four pairs may be considered if not 100, but at least 90 fulfilled: all three variants of the forecast for EUR/USD, suggested by the experts last week, considered the level of 1.1200 as the ultimate target, which was actually reached on Friday evening, supported by the U. S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, having brought hope to investors for the rate hike by the Fed before the end of 2016 the forecast for GBP/USD can also be deemed as 100 fulfilled. As a reminder, both the experts and the technical analysis predicted the continuation of a sideways trend, formed after Brexit. Considering smooth consolidation, the resistance of 1.3280 was indicated as the nearest target, which the pair reached last Wednesday, following which it rebounded to the center of the channel, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.3130 predicting the future of USD/JPY, there was no consensus between the experts and the indicators. The only one, who offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphical analysis on 1053 4 and D1, insisting on the pairs rise to the resistance of 102.00, which virtually happened on Friday, when the pair reached the high of 101.94 as a reminder, the forecast for USD/CHF reckoned that for a while it would be moving in a sideways channel of 0.95350.9640 with the pivot point of 0.9590, then the pair was expected to move in an uptrend with the first target of 0.9710, and the next - 0.9800. Except that the pivot level became the lower boundary of the channel, that forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. During the first half of the week the pair had been moving strictly to the east, after which it went to the north, and by the end of the week it virtually reached the ultimate target, having risen up to the level of 0.9792. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: EUR/USD. After the speech of J. Yellen a certain uncertainty crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators readings. In other words, one half of experts reckons that the pair will return to the resistance of 1.1365, the other half believes that, for sure, it will try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200 again. As for the indicators, the ones on 1053 4 point to the south, and the ones on D1 predict a sideways trend. It appears that in such a situation the economic data from Europe, which are due to be released on Wednesday, and, especially, NFP data - the key indicator of economic health of the USA, which will be released on Friday, September 2, will have the major impact on the pairs movement. The forecast for NFP reminds of the month old unfulfilled forecast, and it predicts that this figure will fall from 255 1050 to 164 1050 188 1050 trying to give a forecast for GBP/USD we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD. However, the whole diversity of views and readings can be reduced to a certain common denominator, according to which the summer sideways trend should be expected. The level of 1.3000 is indicated as the main support, and the level of 1.3320 as the main resistance. The next resistance will be at 1.3385. With this, the graphical analysis on both 1053 4 and D1 warns that fist the pair can go down to the support area, and only then, having rebounded from it, it will surge upwards. The ultimate target here will be the third resistance at 1.3560. As to the forecast for autumn in general, 80 of experts have sided with the bears and they predict a possible decline of the pair to the area of 1.25001.2800 giving forecast for USD/JPY, we can speak of a consolidation of this pair around the pivot level of 100.80. The resistance will be in the area of 102.20, the support - 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 points out that the pair will seek the area of 0.98400.9880, but it can spend from one week to two weeks to break through the support of 099.90. As for the forecast for the upcoming months, only around 70 of experts, backed by the graphical analysis, reckon that the pair will go up to the area of 105.00107.00 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, 100 of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to move alongside the pivot point of 0.9680 with predominance of bearish trends. The resistance will be at 0.9800, the support at 0.9640. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 09 September 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50 of experts, which reckoned that, for sure, the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week at the level of 1.1150 at that very area, where as far back as last June the long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 1.1500, had started with a small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100 fulfilled. As anticipated, first the pair went down to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last two months giving the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the pairs rise to the area of 105.00107.00, the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it reached the high of 104.30 the assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be correct it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again also last week. However the shoot to the north failed to be convincing, and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of 0.9800. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: EUR/USD. The opinions of the analysts still differ 40 of them believe that the pair will go up to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on 1053 4, predict the pairs fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070. Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070 clearly, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75) point to the north. As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view (held by 80 of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20 of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. Well see which of these scenarios will play out early in the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend. However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold giving the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 104.50, and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further down to the level of 100.90 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any major changes for weeks a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800, which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most significant events worth noting are release of GDP data from Switzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate on Friday. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 12 16 September 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as for the forecast for EUR/USD, those 40 of experts, who believed that the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1300, which virtually happened, were right. As expected, the ECB interest and deposit rates decision and corresponding commentary from the governor of the mega-regulator turned out to be the key event for it. Eventually, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then it reversed and went down, wrapping up the week around the strong level of support/resistance of 1.1230 as a reminder, assessing the prospects for GBP/USD last week, 80 of experts, the graphical analysis on D1 and 75 of indicators pointed to the north, indicating 1.3370 and 1.3480 as the levels of resistance. As expected, as early as Monday the pair reached the first target, rebounded, but in a day it overcame this obstacle and surged further upwards. It failed to reach the high of July 15 - 1.3480 however even the high of 1.3445 may be considered as the upper boundary of the summer sideways channel. Having reached it, the pair reversed and returned to the levels of the early week the forecast for USD/JPY reckoned that the pair would fail to get over the resistance in the area of 104.00 104.50, and it would have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the graphical analysis specified that during the month the pair could go further down to the level of 100.90. However, data on the USA economy allowed making a breakthrough to the south much earlier as early as Tuesday, on September 6, the pair literally collapsed, having reached the bottom at the level of 101.20. However later the bulls could pare over half of losses, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 103.00 if usually USD/CHF shows strong negative correlation with EUR/USD, last week, on top of that, it almost precisely replicated the chart of USD/JPY, simultaneously confirming the forecast for a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800. During the whole year the pair has been haunting this level, which happened also this time it ended the week in the area of 0.9750 0.9785. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: predicting the future of EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which had begun in July, will continue. According to this forecast, for a while the pair can move backing on the support of 1.1200, following which it will go up. The nearest target will be at 1.1420, if it will be broken through - 1.1500. Only one analyst expressed an alternative point of view in his opinion, in the near future the pair will break through the boundary of the ascending channel and it will go down to the support of 1.1120 assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators tend towards a sideways movement. The experts, backed by the graphical analysis, determine the boundaries of this channel ranging from 1.3200 to 1.3500. With this, lots of news from Great Britain, released on Tuesday, Wednesday and, especially, on Thursday, can influence the acting of the pair. As for the longer term forecast, 75 of analysts along with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that, for sure, the pair will test the lows of June-July in the area of 1.2750 1.2850 giving a forecast for USD/JPY, both experts (65) and the graphical analysis on 1053 4 and D1 expect the pair to fall down to the support of 101.20, and then even further down to 99.50. 10 predict a sideways trend, and the remaining 25 insist on the pairs rise to the area of 103.20 104.00 as to the last pair of our review USD/CHF, the forecast here remains unchanged - a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9750 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9580. The resistance will be at 0.9840 and 0.9890. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 23 September 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150 as expected, last weeks acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75 of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pairs strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000 predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65 of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25 of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10 of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from in the area of 102.25-102.60 USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35 of experts and 15 of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first to the level of 1.1100, and then 100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pairs decline makes up to 70, and the area of 1.0500 1.0800 is indicated as the target assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps 35 vote for the fall, 30 - for the rise and 35 - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 1.3450 there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further up to the high of 111.45 the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF is still the same movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60 of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Commercial Member Joined May 2014 157 Posts Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 30 September 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didnt give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.11001.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35 voted for the pairs fall, 30 - for its rise, and 35 for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didnt cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960 as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area to the area of 100.50101.25 Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.96850.9740. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: EUR/USD. 95 of indicators on H4 and 80 on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60 of them vote for the pairs rise, and 40 - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.12601.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75 of experts give priority to the bears the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow. as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts 70, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00 talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60 of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70 of analysts are sure about that. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 07 October 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60 of analysts voted for the pairs rise up to the resistance of 1.12601.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40 of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from at the level of 1.1240 currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts 70, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33 giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640. and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151 1050 to 170 1050 176 1050. EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70 of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000 certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65 of experts, backed by the a bsolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060 as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally about half of them vote for the pairs rise, and the same number for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pairs fluctuations to 99.00104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.97000.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support in the area of 0.96400.9660. With this, over 75 of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. September 2016: Pitfalls of Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX It is always interesting to watch how people make their choice and then understand why it happened. What is meant here is not future USA presidential elections, but the choice of the investors, subscribing to trading signals in the same-name service in MT4 platform. After all, people are not just subscribing, they virtually trust their, often considerable, funds to a given trader - provider of the signals. It is well-known that anything money-related requires special attention. Naturally, this also applies to automatic copying of trades of other traders. Technically, it is possible just to choose the provider of the signals showing the maximum profit and copy his trading. But is it always the best option As usual, the leading analyst of NordFX broker company John Gordon expresses his opinion on the subject. And, as often happens, he is not inclined to look at the choice of the subscribers only through rose-coloured glasses. Following the results of September 2016, Top 10 of the most popular signals among the subscribers is as follows: I. CALM (growth 2045, 498 subscribers), II. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 91, 468 subscribers), III. Seven Majors Renko Scalper (growth 301, 336 subscribers), IV. Revolution (growth 4138, 317 subscribers), V. New Stable Forex Profit (growth 44, 261 subscribers), VI. Small to BIG Money (growth 468, 143 subscribers), VII. WaterFragance (growth 1544, 122 subscribers), VIII. F Cracker (growth 281, 98 subscribers), IX. WaterFragance2 (growth 38, 91 subscribers), X. SURVIVOR (growth 2060, 84 subscribers). If you dont mind, J. Gordon peers at the monitor of his computer, I will begin the analysis with the signal called CALM the newbie of our TOP rating, which entered the TOP 10 for the first time. I tell you straight away that it took the first place not only among the subscribers, but also in the rating created by MetaQuotes company. And this is by no means unimportant, as two of these ratings very often dont match among themselves. So, why do more than fifteen hundred investors have such a deep fascination for that signal, so that they entrusted to it 2.200.000 for management I guess, Ill be right in assuming, that its author has solid history as PAMM-manager. This is evident from his another signal HOZYIN, which is accompanied by numerous deposits and withdrawal of funds. As for CALM, this signal is a little more than one year old, and during the first 12 months it showed the growth of about 25 per month. With this, the drawdown repeatedly appeared in the area of 40 from the deposit, after which the author of the signal decided to lower the risks at least to 30. But, as often happens, together with the risk the profitability also fell. According to the forecasts of the author, it will make from 10 to 15 per month now, and its possible that with such parameters the signal will leave TOP 10 investors preferences. But so far it makes an impression of a quite stable and profitable signal. Here I want to pay attention to one specific moment connected with online monitoring on the website MQL5,quot J. Gordon continues. Among the main and most marked parameters The maximum drawdown is specified here. This parameter, on the one hand, is rather terrifying for the investors, but on the other hand it is not reasonably objective. The paradox is that eventually it can only increase, but not decrease in any way. Lets try to look into the matter of this nuance by the example of the same CALM signal. When it started in life its author applied a rather risky strategy, and the maximum drawdown on equity at that time made 44. If he began to risk even more, and the drawdown would increase, lets say, up to 60, then it would be fixed in the corresponding column. However, our author reduced the risks, and value of his maximum drawdown fell to 30. So what He can trade another five, ten, twenty years, reducing the drawdown from 44 to 30, 10, to zero But in this column from here to eternity those 44, which were formed at the time of wild youth of this signal, will be specified. Does that sound fair In my opinion, such lifelong black spot (do you remember the novel Treasure island by Stevenson) isnt not quite fair. And the only option to get rid of this curse is to register a new signal. But then the whole months-long or long-term work of the provider will be ruined, and this new signal will be at the very bottom of the rating, which no potential subscriber and investor will ever get to. In my opinion, at least one more parameter the average value of the drawdown for the whole life span of the signal - could be set forth near the maximum drawdown. Until this happens, I urge you to look attentively at the chart of the drawdown, which is included in monitoring of each signal. And before subscribing, compare dynamics of this chart to the data on profitability of the signal. This will give a true and fair view. Data on profitability is generally very important and evident parameter which allows picturing what to expect from a subscription. Lets take, for example, Revolution signal the IV place in this rating. The growth in a year and a half makes more than 4000 with the maximum drawdown of 8 one would wonder what more could it be asked for But if we look at the results of last months, it turns out that everything is not in the way that it wished to be. Indeed, last May 2015, the profit made 150, and currently, in recent months, the picture has been absolutely different: April 1.66, May 0, June 1.53, July 6.79, August 3.31, September (at the time of this article writing) 0.62 at all What thousands of percents are there to talk about The annual forecast of MQL5 is just over 16 per year. It is up to you, dear readers, to decide whether it is worth subscribing to such signal. And one more piece of advicequot, J. Gordon continues, choose for subscription only those signals which can be analyzable on rather long time period at least about a year. Otherwise, in a number of cases, you can discover unpleasant surprises. I dont want to suspect anybody of anything, but sometimes the results on the growth chart before the thin vertical gray line and after it differ significantly. To clarify, this line means the beginning of online monitoring on the part of MQL5. So, for example, in August one more signal, which in a month with the drawdown of less than 35 gained over 2800 of profit, approached TOP 10. Like I said: more than 2800 in 31 days Its incredible But it had been prior to the beginning of the independent online monitoring. And afterward in September it showed 37 of profit and drawdown of almost 60. (That very drawdown which with a bonus of 100 most often leads to closing of accounts). I dont know how the author of this signal can explain such a decline in profit by 75 times. But I know that in September he instantly registered two new signals which showed the growth of. 6000 and 7000, respectively, in less than a month I will watch this fantastic trader closely and I will surely tell you about his progress (or failures). Meanwhile I want to emphasize, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up, that we arent going either to frighten investors, or, on the contrary, persuade them to subscribe to any given signal. We only want to share our experience of analysis of signals, to show what hides behind the figures and charts of monitoring, and to ensure that you received if not stratospheric, but though real profit. Admit that a bird in the hand is worth two in the wood. It is, by the way, one of the fundamental principles of work of our company stability and reliability. Forex is serious business, which you should take extremely seriously. And, certainly, respectfully forex forexforecast eurusd forexsignals binaryoptions nordfx/ Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 14 October 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151 1050 to 170 1050 176 1050. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151 1050 instead of 167 1050. and then it announced that the print for September made 156 1050. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months pivot point to the level of 1.1200, very quickly last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3() minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i. e. 450 points lower with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicating robo traders and the president of France, Franois Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main suspects. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430 as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90 USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.97000.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90 of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120 USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pairs rise, just over half for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70103.90, and then decline first to the level of 102.70, and then to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75 the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.96400.9660. With this, almost 80 of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 17 21 October 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: referring the future EUR/USD, the overwhelming majority of experts (90) predicted that the pair would decline to the area of 1.1000, which did happen. First with a single bound it travelled 220 points by Thursday, then it stalled at the level of 1.0985, following which we saw a 70 points rebound, in a result of which many traders, using averaging of positions, could recover from a deep drawdown and catch a break. Then the pair again reversed to the south and on Friday evening it made a second attempt to consolidate below the support of 1.1000, wrapping up the week at the level of 1.0970 as for the future of GBP/USD, the graphical analysis on H4 turned out to be right, it expressly pointed to continuation of the descending trend, which had begun on September 06. The levels of 1.2340 and 1.2120 were indicated as the support levels. This scenario panned out almost entirely. As early as Tuesday during the Asian session the pair easily got over the first support turning it into the resistance, and it sharply plunged further. Inertia of the decline was so strong that the pair couldnt even fall 30 points below the support of 1.2120, but then, likewise, it sharply went up to the intended resistance area. The entire second part of the week the pair spent trying to get over the newly formed resistance of 1.2165, and eventually it ended the week at the level of 1.2185 USD/JPY. As a reminder, experts opinions split almost equally in this case: just under half of them voted for the pairs rise, just over the half - for its fall. And here, as with GBP/USD, the graphical analysis proved to be right, it pointed to predominance of bullish sentiment and the pairs rise. But as for the ultimate target of the upswing, the forecast differed from reality. The graphical analysis on H4 predicted that the pair would go up to the resistance of 103.70-103.90, and the one on D1 - up to 106.40. In reality, the pair reached the level somewhere in between the specified highs at the level of 104.65. The end of the week coincided with the high of October 6 - 104.155 The medium-term forecast for USD/CHF starts panning out slowly but steadily. The strength of bulls starts outweighing, and thus, the pair is getting closer and closer to the intended target - 1.0100. Last week it could consolidate above the level of 0.9800, but the resistance of 0.9900 appeared to be an insurmountable barrier on its way, and the pair failed to rise above the level of 0.9910. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: its clear after a deep decline of EUR/USD, all 100 of indicators on H4 and D1 point to the south. As for the analysts, only half of them agree to this opinion. They indicate the support of 1.0900 as the short-term target. The alternative viewpoint provides for return of the pair to the level of 1.1100, the next resistance will be at the level of 1.1200. As for the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, according to it, the pair should first decline to the level of 1.0940, and then transit to the sideways movement within the range of 1.0940-1.1000. In a longer term the number of supporters of fall increases, and now more than 60 of experts reckon that the pair will go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825 GBP/USD. Here, about 70 of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and only 5 of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it will move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330, and then, maybe it will return to the level of 1.3000. The graphical analysis on D1 strongly disagrees with this scenario, according to its readings the pair can fall below the area of 1.1850. With this, we should take into consideration the fact that for a long time formation of a given trend will depend not so much on the readings of Great Britain as on announcements of politicians on terms and conditions of United Kingdom exit from the EU USD/JPY. For a third week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: one half, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, predicts the upswing of the pair to the high of 105.00, the second half votes for its decline to the level of 102.80 and further down - to the area of 102.00. The graphical analysis on D1 also votes for fall and transition to the sideways trend within 102.80-104.30 as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 60 of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the bulls strength have weakened and the pair is in for a temporary rebound to the benchmark area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40 of experts reckon that the ascending trend hasnt ended yet, and the pair will be able to go further 50 points - up to the high of 0.9950. The medium-term target remains the same - 1.0100, though the number of supporters of such a scenario decreased from 80 to 65 as compared to the last week. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. forex forexforecast eurusd forex signals binaryoptions nordfx/ Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 24 28 October 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: predicting the future of EUR/USD, most experts (60), backed by 100 of indicators on H4 and D1, expected the pair to go down to the lows of February-March - 1.0800-1.0825. It was just a question of time this process would take. The level of 1.0900 was indicated as the short-term support. Indeed, that support was a short-term one, and the pair got over it on Friday easily, than having declined to the level of 1.0860. It was followed by a small rebound, and the pair ended the week at the level of 1.0885 as a reminder, giving the forecast for GBP/USD 70 of analysts, backed by the graphical analysis on H4, reckoned that in the near future the pair would not fall below the level of 1.2100 and it would move in a sideways channel of 1.2100-1.2330. That forecast was 100 fulfilled. The low of the week was recorded at the level of 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts the pair made on Tuesday and Wednesday to break through the resistance failed, and it wrapped up the week almost in the middle of the specified side channel - at the level of 1.2230 USD/JPY. Here, the graphical analysis provided the most accurate forecast, it predicted that the pair would go down and transit to the sideways trend within 102.80104.30. Indeed, the pair started declining since the very first moment of opening of the week session and during all five days it kept within the side channel within 103.16104.35 USD/CHF pair continues moving insistently towards its main target the high of 1.0100. With this, last week the part of analysts reckoned that the pair was in for a temporary rebound. But 40of them were adamant that before going down it should reach the mark of 0.9950 for sure. The pair not only met the target, but also beat it a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: talking about the future of EUR/USD 70 of experts reckon that the pair will continue its declining at least to the level of 1.0800. 100 of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The decline can be even greater if forecast on state of economy of the USA will be proved true. Some readings for September will be announced on Thursday, October 27, and annual data on GDP on Friday, October 28. The analysts expect them to be rather positive for US dollar, which can drop the pair further. As a reminder, last year the pair fell below the level of 1.0500 repeatedly. Around 30 of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which draws in first a sideways movement of the pair within 1.08551.0915 and then upswing to the level of 1.0960, hold an alternative view. The next resistance will be at 1.1100 GBP/USD. Here, around 80 of analysts, backed by 70 of indicators, reckon that in the near future the pair will start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its readings early week the pair will keep within 1.21351.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will increase up to 1.20001.2430. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will speak on Tuesday, their speeches can influence forming of a new trend, as well as the aforesaid data on the US economy. It should be noted that in a longer term opinion of analysts is changing, and over 55 of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.28001.3000 by the New Year USD/JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts in respect of the future of this pair split almost equally: 40 vote for its rise, 40 - for its fall, 20 - for a sideways trend with the pivot point of 103.45. If we add readings of 70 of indicators and the graphical analysis to this variety of opinions, in the near future we can expect the pair to upswing first to the level of 105.00, and then fall to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support will be at 102.80. Coming back to the opinions of the experts, it may be noted that in the medium term already 65 of them reckon that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00 as for the forecast for USD/CHF, here everything is unchanged: around 60 of analysts, 90 of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north this time to the high of 1.0000, and then bouncing off to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The remaining 40 of experts believe that the pair will reverse southwards, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels will be at 0.9855 and 0.9820, then at 0.9765 and 0.9695 Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. forex forexforecast eurusd signalsforex binaryoptions nordfx/ Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 31 November 4, 2016 First, a review of last weeks forecast: giving forecast for EUR/USD, those 30 of experts, having suggested a possible rise of the pair, turned out to be right. As a reminder, such scenario was also backed by the graphical analysis, according to it a sideways movement of the pair within 1.08551.0915 should change to the upswing to the level of 1.0960. The level of 1.1100 was indicated as the next resistance level. Practically, that was exactly what happened: early in the week the pair was moving eastwards within the predetermined range, and then it went up, and toward the very end of the week it surged upward striving to reach the high of 1.1000. However, it failed to reach it, and it wrapped up the week 25 points above the first resistance level at the level of 0.0985 GBP/USD. Here 80 of analysts reckoned that in the near future the pair would start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then to 1.2000. This happened on Tuesday, October 25, ahead of the speeches of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Just within 3 hours the pair lost almost 160 points and reached the bottom at the level of 1.2082, and then in a similar rapid manner it regained almost all losses, wrapping up the week around the one of the strongest October levels of support/resistance at 1.2185 the forecast for USD/JPY could be reduced to two trends first the pairs rise to the level of 105.00, and then its declining to the support in the area of 103.20. Indeed, starting from Monday the pair went up and as early as Thursday it reached that high. On Friday it went up further 50 points, following which the bulls took well-deserved rest, and the bears, meeting almost no resistance, immediately pushed the pair 100 points down as for the forecast for USD/CHF, the majority of analysts, indicators and the graphical analysis by common consent voted for another breakthrough of the pair to the north up to the high of 1.0000, and then rebound to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The level of 0.9855 was indicated as the next support level. The forecast was if not 100, then at least 99.98 accurately fulfilled, because the pair reached that very high of 0.9998 on Tuesday, October 25. The promised rebound also occurred and exactly to the specified support as well. The pair ended the week at the level of 0.9875. Forecast for the Upcoming Week: Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested: notwithstanding last weeks rise of the pair, 70 of experts continue to insist that the pair should anyway go down at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they have taken a neutral stance. However, the graphical analysis on H4 reckons that the pair, having moved down to the level of 1.0900, will reverse again to the north and will move towards the resistance of 1.1100. Around 30 of analysts agree to this scenario. At the same time, we should keep in mind that the upcoming week is busy in terms of significant economic events, including release of the United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 2, and release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, November 4. The upcoming USA presidential elections, scheduled for November 8, should also be taken into account. All these events can lead to great exchange rate fluctuations, which is fraught with not only large profit but also huge risks for traders next week not only the US Fed, but also the Bank of England will announce its Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, November 3), however, the analysts dont expect any surprises from it. As for their opinion on GBP/USD, around 70 of them point to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the level of 1.2000, and maybe even 100 points lower. The indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully concur with this opinion. However, the latter deems it possible that before going down the pair can rise to the resistance of 1.2250. The next resistance will be at 1.2330. USD / JPY For a fifth week in a row the experts have no consensus on the future of this pair: 45 vote for the pairs rise to the area of 105.50106.00, 25 - for its fall to the support of 102.80 and 30 - for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and the graphical analysis, they reckon that the pair will try to re-approach the resistance of 105.50, and then will literally nosedive first to the support of 104.00, and then even lower to the area of 102.40102.80. But, as with both foregoing cases, here you should keep in mind the significant news from the USA, and also release of the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, November 1 as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 70 of analysts believe that the pair should definitely return to the level of 1. 0000.The remaining 30 reckon that it hasnt finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.97000.9800. The graphical analysis on H4, which believes that the decline can be even greater, also agrees with this scenario, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third opinion, according to which, due to the events mentioned above, in the near future the pair will just mirror EUR/USD acting, a negative correlation with which is most noticeable during the periods of heightened volatility. Roman Butko, NordFX Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited. forex forexforecast eurusd signalsforex binaryoptions nordfx/
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